Analysts sceptical about success of 3D TVs

Despite the proliferation of 3D televisions at this year’s Consumer Electronics Show, the price of glasses and the fact that many people have invested in flat-panel TVs in recent years could put a damper on the 3D market, according to data from analyst firm Gartner.

While 3D was pervasive at CES, it is “not ready for primetime yet,” analyst Van Baker said during a Tuesday webcast about CES trends.

In recent years, many consumers have traded in their old CRT TVs for flat-panel devices. Given that the average TV can last between seven and 10 years, consumers are going to be hesitant to swap out their new TV for a 3D set so soon, Baker said.

Cost is another factor. While the addition of 3D technology to an existing set would only increase the cost of that TV by about 15 per cent, it’s the glasses that are the real investment, he said.

LCD-based 3D TVs include polarizing filters that require micro-shutter glasses — sorry, no recycling those glasses you picked up at the movies.

Micro-shutter glasses can cost up to $200 per pair, so if you have a family of four that can run you an additional $800 on top of the cost of a new set.

In talks with 3D vendors at CES, Baker said that many mentioned the possibility of bundling a pair of glasses with the TV set in order to encourage purchase.

“I think by this coming holiday season it’s likely you’ll be able to buy a 3D TV for just slightly more than you’re paying for a flat-panel TV today, but if you need additional family members to view it, the cost of the glasses is something you’re going to have to step up to,” Baker said.

For those who do invest, however, Baker said that Sony’s lineup of OLED 3D TVs, was most impressive and “presents a very compelling experience for consumers.” Samsung, meanwhile, demoed a 3D TV that did not require glasses, but Baker found that that set provided a “very narrow field of view” that often looked fuzzy at certain angles.

Search engine

Beyond 3D TVs, other products that made a splash at CES include smartphones, e-book readers, and tablets/slates. Despite the fact that it was actually unveiled before CES at a press event in Mountain View, Google’s Nexus One smartphone was the most talked-about phone at the conference, Baker said. The search engine giant did not have a presence on the show floor, but demoed the device off-site.

Baker said he was also impressed with Nokia, which showed some prototypes for a new user interface that was very iPhone-like. “It looks like they’re making the changes that need to be made,” he said.

A challenge for smartphones going forward will likely be the costs of data plans, Baker said. As more Internet-connected products like e-books and tablets come to the market, their presence is going to create bandwidth constraints, as well as multiple data plans.

Willing to spend

“The thirst for bandwidth is going to be huge for these devices, and carriers are going to have to figure out a way to price this in a way that makes a reasonable profit,” Baker said. “As we get into slates and tablets (with) cellular connectivity … there’s a limit to how much consumers are willing to spend” on all these data plans.