Groups push for door-to-door climate change drives in Africa

The narrow road leading to Muguga in Kiambu District was a known nightmare a few years ago for motorists trying to avoid contact with lorries that drove into potato farms.

The harvest was plenty hence the beeline of transporters. The nightmare is no more, sadly.

The blossoming green landscape of Muguga does not feature potatoes anymore. And farmers are asking endless questions, some rhetoric.

Farmers have wandered into growing maize, but are still less satisfied looking at the thin harvest; they want to drop maize farming too.

What is holding the restless group is the question: What next? This question is adding salt to injury for the farmers who have been asking: What has happened?

A possible answer lies in another monster called climate change, which Africa, the less polluter, is being told will hit it unfairly hard.

Muguga was characterised by heavy rainfall favouring growing of potatoes.

This is what elderly farmers like James Waruinge have known for years until a few years ago.

New diseases and the changing weather patterns have robbed the area of traditional produce in what could also spell a death knell to farming in the region –– a key source of fresh foodstuff for Nairobi.

This is worrying farmers and researchers.

The former have been forced to try their hands on new crops and the researcher is seeing production dropping “significantly” in 10 years thanks to climate change.

“Potato yields has dropped significantly and almost all farmers have abandoned it for maize,” said Mr Waruinge.

For him, the problem was “new diseases” that started attacking potato farms.

Ms Lillian Njeri, a researcher at the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (Kari), said in an earlier interview: “The problem here is that weather patterns have changed and are unfavourable for growing potatoes.”

Even maize, she warned, would be a type that can withstand a harsher weather. “If measures are not taken to develop highly drought-resistant maize variety, production will drop significantly in the next 10 years.”

In Makindu, Eastern Province, new evidence released by the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) shows that from 1959 to 2004, scientists found that farmers in the area already endured extreme weather shocks as a result of global warming.

But in Makindu, scientists are not for the crop change but rather better farm management that they have found out enable farmers to get more food than when soil is exposed to run-off.

“By promoting the use of commonly available methods of soil fertility management and water conservation, we find that governments can help farmers to avert crop failure and famine, as well as prepare farmers to better cope with climate change impacts,” said Dr Peter Cooper, a senior scientist of ICRISAT.

Successive scientific studies predict that temperatures in Kenya will rise by two degrees centigrade in the next 25 years.

This means arable land will become drier. Amount of rainfall could drop or the moisture from rain dry faster.

Increases in temperature reduce the length of growing period, which is the number of days the soil has enough water to support crop growth to full maturity.

High temperatures also speed up crop growth leading to earlier, premature flowering and, as a result, depressed yields.

The need to create awareness on how climate change will impact Africa and in particular what measures should be taken to ensure food yield improve despite weather changes has been identified by scientists and development experts as the way forward for the continent.

Experts also say Africa should take a more proactive role in future negotiations for climate change to ensure that the outcomes favour the continent.

The need to create awareness on what people should do at the individual level to mitigate the effects of climate change is even more important today because of the failure of the world to agree on a new climate change deal at the Copenhagen talks in December 2009, experts said.

The failure to come up with a deal good for Africa at Copenhagen meant the continent, which contributes the lowest levels of carbon dioxide gases that increase global warming and trigger climate change, will continue to carry the bigger burden.

At Copenhagen, Africans were pushing for a legally-binding and therefore enforceable deal compelling developed nations – the principal polluters – to cut their emissions and finance projects like renewable energy and better agricultural practices to cushion Africans from climate change.

That opportunity passed by the next round of negotiations will be held in Mexico next year, and Africa Union is being urged to take a more proactive role.

Negusu Aklilu, the director of the Ethiopian Civil Society Network on Climate Change does not however see tangible outcome in the next negotiations.

“The possibility of an ambitious legally binding deal is very remote considering the existing stalemate and unequal level of commitment by different developed nations,” he said at climate change seminar in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia last week organised by human security think-tank Institute for Security Studies (ISS).

Mr Aklilu said the financial pledges made at the Copenhagen conference were inadequate and ambiguous on concerns like sources and guarantees for funding as well as institutional arrangements on channelling the resources.

At the Copenhagen, developed countries pledged to mobilise Sh7.4 billion by 2020 to help developing countries reduce the impact of climate change.

“The money that was promised by the developed countries is not only less to cover the cost of adaptation and other necessary measures but also is being drawn from the already allocated fund for development projects,” said Mr Aklilu.

The so-called political deal signed at the Copenhagen talks agreed to limit to global temperature increase of two degrees Celsius and reassessment in 2015 of the science in relation to temperature rises.

The solution, it appears, would be to educate Africans on how they can as individuals and communities to slow down climate change effects rather than counting on the goodwill of developed nations.

Agriculture scientists said this awareness should in particular give high attention on what farmers can do to ensure they increase or maintain high yields from their farms even in the face of climate change.

Research already carried by scientists focusing on food production in arid and semi arid areas show that improved use of fertiliser and harnessing rainwater would increase food production even if climate changes for the worse.

ICRISAT scientists said they found out that enhanced fertiliser use, rainwater harvesting and mulching could almost double crop yields, even with a three degrees Celsius temperature increase with the quantum of rainfall and its distribution remaining the same.

Three degrees Celsius has been termed as “suicidal” because of its ability to completely change the weather patterns of a region.

The latest report of the UN agency for climate change cites that average global temperatures are currently 0.43 degrees Celsius to 0.54 degrees higher than the yearly temperatures recorded between 1961 and 1990.

The model used concur that temperatures are increasing steadily within the tropics like in Kenya but give divergent predictions on rainfall trends.

“However uncertain climate changes might be, farmers must eventually adapt to them,” said ICRISAT director general William Dar.

Most farmers in the semi-arid tropics of sub-Saharan Africa rely exclusively on highly unpredictable rainfall to produce food and generate income and are, therefore, extremely vulnerable even to prevailing climatic shocks and rainfall variability.

Climate change is expected to worsen matters for them. Food and Agriculture Organisation (Fao) statistics show that while all other regions of the world have recorded steady increase in fertiliser use over the past four decades, sub-Saharan Africa’s fertiliser use stagnates at a very low level at five kilos per hectare.

“We find that vulnerable communities tend to over-estimate the negative effects of the current climate-induced uncertainties by trying to minimise losses, but this also means they fail to take full advantage of the better seasons, losing opportunities to recoup losses from poor seasons.”

A report released on Monday this week by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said use of various forms of sustainable agriculture, including organic farming will help soil maintain yields even in the face of climate change.

“Organic farming is good for the environment and often fits the circumstances of smallholder farmers who make up the majority of food producers in the developing world. Such farmers in many cases can’t afford fertiliser or pesticides and are used to functioning without them. Organic produce sells for higher prices,” said the report.

Research shows that when organic farming is combined with reduced tillage techniques, farming can become almost climate-neutral. It said farms that engage in certified organic production in East Africa are more profitable than those engaged in conventional production.

Rose Mwebaza of the Environmental Security Programme at the ISS in Nairobi said awareness should go hand in hand with integrating gender into the climate change mitigation and adaptation policies.

“Compared to men, women tend to have more limited access to resources that would enhance their capacity to adapt to climate change including land, credit, agricultural inputs, decision-making bodies, and technology and training services,” she said.