Erratic El Nino rains complicate food security situation in 2010

However, these imports failed to meet the demand due to red-tape in the procurement process, and were also expensive (maize was obtained at Sh3,750 per 90 kg bag which pushed up the price of maize meal).

It was not until January 2009 that the government opened up importation to millers and private traders, and also waived the 50 per cent import duty.

Tegemeo’s analysis shows that this duty removal had a moderating effect on local grain and flour prices, but this effect was not substantially evident until five months later.

Therefore, it is imperative that the government give a clear direction on the duty waiver, considering that suspension of duty earlier not only promotes more timely availability of grain during domestic shortfall, but also reduces uncertainty and allows for adequate planning by the private sector, especially millers and importers.

Duty waiver

Maize production in the country has been on a downward trend since 2007.

Apart from post election violence of 2007/08, the other factors that led to this decline are still relevant: drought and high cost of inputs.

With climate change becoming a reality, it is increasingly becoming difficult to accurately predict what to expect in terms of crop production.

Given the historical trends in production and weather patterns, it is prudent for the government to maintain the import duty waiver on maize until the country is out of the biting maize shortages.

An informed assessment, on whether to keep or remove the waiver, should be undertaken at the beginning of the third quarter of the year, when the 2010 long rains crop performance would be known.

Additionally, a quicker response by the government when the food balance sheet indicates need for imports is vital, because they potentially require major budgetary allocations, particularly when large deficits are expected.

Transparent rules

Such a response would ensure that the country avoids situations where NCPB has insufficient funds to acquire maize either locally or through imports.

Looking forward, however, there is a critical need to put in place clearly-defined and transparent rules for triggering government intervention in the face of such maize shortages.

This will reduce uncertainty on the part of the private sector.