Erratic El Nino rains complicate food security situation in 2010

Kenya’s food security situation remains precarious as the country stares at a potential food crisis occasioned by poor rains during the 2009 long rains season, experts said.

The much anticipated El Nino rains came, not only late but lasted two to three weeks thus dimming expectations of an improved food situation.

Much of the El Nino rains came in the third week of December last year, and ended by early January in most areas before the maize had reached maturity stage.

In their food security outlook for 2010, experts at Egerton University backed Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development foresee a tight food purse this year while calling for Government intervention to cushion millions of families which might find themselves caught up in the food shortage.

Dr Mary Mathenge, Dr Lillian Kirimi, and Mr Francis Karin look at scenarios that may shape food security in the coming nine months.

In parts of North Rift, the El Nino rains arrived long after the farmers had lost the second crop, especially wheat.

In South Rift, and particularly the wheat and barley zones of Mau Narok, the rains arrived when the farmers were about to harvest their crops and made harvesting difficult.

This led to huge losses, estimated by some farmers at about Sh300 million.

Nyanza, Western, Central and North Eastern provinces also did not benefit much from the El Nino rains.

It was too much too late and instead led to destruction of crops especially in Central, Eastern and parts of Coast provinces.

Only parts of Eastern and Coast provinces — Kitui, Makueni and Taita districts — benefited to a large extent from the El Nino rains.

Beans and other early maturing crops have been harvested, but maize has been adversely affected by the dry spell.

Not much will be expected from districts such as Mwingi, parts of Machakos and Kibwezi.

Maize production from the long rains usually accounts for 85 per cent of the national production of about 34 million bags.

However, due to bad weather last year, this production is set to fall below that of 2008.

Estimates by Tegemeo based on field visits and assessment place the long rains production at 18 million bags, which is far below the Ministry of Agriculture’s (MoA) estimate of 28 million bags.

Therefore, from the long rains harvest, the country faces a production shortfall of 10 million bags.

Additionally, Tegemeo estimates that the country will receive an extra three million bags from the short rains crop.

The expected total production from the 2009/2010 crop year is about 21-22 million bags, against the country’s current maize consumption estimated at 36-38 million bags.

This leaves a shortfall of at least 15 million bags to be bridged through imports.

This deficit will have a significant impact on access to food as a result of continued upward pressure on maize grain and meal prices.

The 2009/2010 harvest of 21-22 million is expected to last about seven months given a national consumption of about three million bags per month.

The long rains harvest started in August/September 2009, implying that the total 2009/2010 crop could run out by April/May 2010.

The next substantive harvest is not due until October/November 2010, nearly five months away from the time stocks are exhausted.

There is, therefore, an urgent need to act decisively and provide a quick response to the need for imports, given that the estimated time lag between import order and arrival is about two months.

This calls for a clear decision on the import duty waiver.

The ministry has made a request to the Treasury to have the duty waiver extended to June 2010. However, this request has not been approved yet.

With regard to maize importation, there are lessons to learn from the 2008 experience.

It was then estimated that 10 million bags of maize had to be imported by May 2008.

Initially, the imports which started flowing in by November 2008 were brought in by the government through the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB).

However, these imports failed to meet the demand due to red-tape in the procurement process, and were also expensive (maize was obtained at Sh3,750 per 90 kg bag which pushed up the price of maize meal).

It was not until January 2009 that the government opened up importation to millers and private traders, and also waived the 50 per cent import duty.

Tegemeo’s analysis shows that this duty removal had a moderating effect on local grain and flour prices, but this effect was not substantially evident until five months later.

Therefore, it is imperative that the government give a clear direction on the duty waiver, considering that suspension of duty earlier not only promotes more timely availability of grain during domestic shortfall, but also reduces uncertainty and allows for adequate planning by the private sector, especially millers and importers.

Duty waiver

Maize production in the country has been on a downward trend since 2007.

Apart from post election violence of 2007/08, the other factors that led to this decline are still relevant: drought and high cost of inputs.

With climate change becoming a reality, it is increasingly becoming difficult to accurately predict what to expect in terms of crop production.

Given the historical trends in production and weather patterns, it is prudent for the government to maintain the import duty waiver on maize until the country is out of the biting maize shortages.

An informed assessment, on whether to keep or remove the waiver, should be undertaken at the beginning of the third quarter of the year, when the 2010 long rains crop performance would be known.

Additionally, a quicker response by the government when the food balance sheet indicates need for imports is vital, because they potentially require major budgetary allocations, particularly when large deficits are expected.

Transparent rules

Such a response would ensure that the country avoids situations where NCPB has insufficient funds to acquire maize either locally or through imports.

Looking forward, however, there is a critical need to put in place clearly-defined and transparent rules for triggering government intervention in the face of such maize shortages.

This will reduce uncertainty on the part of the private sector.

Decisions on when, how much, and who is to import maize need to consider information on the world supply of grains as well as movements in world prices.

Kenya’s major source of white maize is South Africa, which accounts for over 70 per cent of total maize imports.

On average, South Africa has always had a closing maize stock of about three million tonnes, but this has been declining as a result of increased domestic use and the decreasing area under crop since the 1995/96.

In 2010, it is estimated that closing stocks may be as low as 1.7 million tonnes, thus putting exports at risk, and impacting negatively on Kenya’s imports.