Treasury faces Sh40bn food bill

Treasury will require a heavy dose of budget re-engineering in the next six months to find the Sh40 billion that food security experts say is needed to cushion the Kenyan economy from the ripple effects of a persistent drought and mass starvation.

Office of the President-based Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG), says 3.8 million pastoralists and households in marginal agricultural regions require urgent humanitarian food assistance together with another 1.5 million primary school children in drought stricken areas.

“The situation is not expected to improve until February 2010 contingent on favourable short rains and implementation of the proposed multi-sectoral interventions,” KFSSG said in an assessment report.

Apart from the rural folk, some 2.5 million urban dwellers, who are unable to meet 50 per cent of their food requirements will also need emergency humanitarian assistance.

Besides, the State will have to feed two million of the rural population affected by the HIV/Aids scourge and close to 100,000 persons displaced by last year’s post-election crisis.

This out-turn presents Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta with a massive off-budget expenditure obligation that he must find money to finance almost immediately.

And with the government’s revenue base still subdued in a sluggish economy, analysts said the looming emergency will, like last year, prompt Treasury into freezing a number of development expenditure plans to raise the money.

Such action will in turn weaken the medium term growth and erode any prospects of quick economic recovery. KFSSG estimates that the national maize output for the 2009 long rain season will stand at 1.84 million tonnes, 28 per cent below normal.

“There is a growing apprehension that the estimated production output could further be revised downwards due to insufficient and erratic rains in parts of the North Rift,” the group said.

And in a swift reaction to the KFSSG’s report, the World Food Programme’s (WFP) country office on Tuesday launched a separate international appeal for $230 million (Sh17.5 billion) to boost its emergency food supply in the next six months.

Mr Burkard Oberle, the WFP country director said the money will be used to feed 3.8 million Kenyans, who have been rendered food insecure by the deepening drought and rising food prices.

“People are going hungry, cattle dying and cases of malnutrition among children are on the increase. Our task has become a huge challenge that requires the resources of the international community to proceed,” said Mr Orberle.

The UN agency that is already feeding 2.6 million Kenyans said it needs the extra cash to reverse acute malnutrition rate among children under five.

Incidents of acute mal-nutrition now stand at 20 per cent in some areas of the country, five percentage points above the international emergency threshold of 15 per cent. 
Of the growing number of Kenyans who are becoming food insecure, the Government has promised to support only 1.2 million people until the end of October, leaving the rest to relief agencies.

Official estimates indicate that at the beginning of this month Kenya had 500,000 tonnes of maize against a monthly requirement of 300,000 tonnes -an indication of serious shortfalls by end of September.