Africa population outpaces economic gains

The reality, however, has seldom matched the rhetoric as first the polarising framework of the Cold War and then short-term national self-interest hampered growth in cross-border trade, investment and political cooperation.

Today, intra-regional trade accounts for just nine per cent of Africa’s total commerce, compared to nearly 50 percent for emerging Asia, according to UN trade body UNCTAD.

However, there are signs this might be changing, most notably with an agreement last year by three major blocs — the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community — to create a single free trade zone encompassing 530 million people.

Implementation will inevitably hit snags and delays, but at a practical level, everything from more cross-border bus routes to electricity lines and regional “power pools” all point to closer regulatory and political alignment.

“It’s not just a political slogan now. There are some actual actions,” said UNCTAD Africa specialist Janvier Nkurunziza.

Set against this new political will, however, is the sheer scale of the investment needed to address Africa’s problems.

The World Bank’s International Finance Corporation estimates that Africa spends only $10 billion a year on upgrading its dilapidated electricity grids— compared to $40 billion needed to meet demand forecast to treble in the next 20 years.

Extra mouths

Similarly, sub-Saharan Africa needs to invest $11 billion a year in farming to feed the extra mouths in 2050, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation said this month.

And even if they secure the cash, leaders need only look at relatively wealthy South Africa, where millions of blacks still live — and frequently riot — in shanty towns 15 years after the end of apartheid, to realise that rolling out infrastructure on a grand scale is far from simple.