Ndung’u ranked Africa’s least effective central bank governor

Kenya’s central banker Njuguna Ndung’u was the least effective policymaker in Africa’s emerging and frontier markets this year, a Reuters survey of regional analysts has showed.

Prof. Ndungu trailed his peers on the continent for failing to spot and act against rising price pressures and then presiding over a stunning collapse of the shilling.

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He scored an average of just 3.1 points from the 10 analysts, who were asked to consider the transparency, independence, efficacy and consistency of monetary policy in select African countries.

Prof Ndung’u’s problems began in January when he cut interest rates in the face of accelerating inflation.

That move raised concerns about his willingness to take tough policy action a year ahead of an election.

As inflation shot into double digits, the shilling tumbled from 80 to the dollar at the start of January to a record low of 107 in October, a 25 per cent slide that hit the image of Kenya as one of Africa’s most stable and sophisticated economies.

Through much of the plunge -- which some in the market likened to flicking through the FM dial on a radio – Prof Ndung’u blamed
‘speculators’.

When Kenya did raise rates, it did so by a fraction of the amount expected.

Prof Ndung’u finally grasped the nettle with a shock 400 basis point hike in the benchmark rate in October as part of a tightening cycle that has brought the currency back to 90 to the dollar.

But few investors have enjoyed the ride. One analyst described Ndung’u as “asleep at the wheel” and another said he had “missed the plot entirely”.

Still, some said it was unfortunate that Ndung’u’s monetary policy overshadowed his success in expanding access to basic banking services, an important platform for broader economic growth.

“No other central bank governor in Africa has done as much for financial inclusion,” said Ms Razia Khan, head of Africa research at Standard Chartered in London.

“In terms of innovation, falling rates of financial exclusion, the reach of microfinance banks and mobile banking Kenya is streets ahead, even compared with South Africa.”

South Africa’s Gill Marcus topped the list of Africa’s central bankers despite taking no major policy decisions, closely followed by Nigeria’s Lamido Sanusi.

arcus, whose last interest rate move was a 50 basis point cut in November 2010, scored an average of 8.2 points out of a possible 10 from the 10 sub-Saharan analysts polled.

She was a shade ahead of Sanusi on 8.1 points.

Sanusi, a respected Islamic scholar and career banker, won praise for his aggressive and early monetary tightening and criticism of loose government fiscal policy, although several respondents said the Central Bank of Nigeria needed to improve
the efficiency with which it releases data.
In neighbouring Uganda, inflation and the currency endured a similar cycle to Kenya although Bank of Uganda Governor Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile scored a favourable rating of 6.9 points for his relatively swift response to price pressures.

He also came out swinging in June against President Yoweri Museveni’s decision to dig into foreign reserves to buy Russian fighter jets, comments which hit the shilling but burnished his credentials as an independent actor.

Beyond sub-Saharan Africa’s most prominent markets – South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda and Zambia – analysts singled out Mozambique’s Ernesto Gove for a year in which the metical has been the world’s best performer, up 21.5 per cent against the dollar.

“He has produced an overlooked success story,” said Johannesburg-based Standard Bank analyst Yvette Babb.

“The metical has been the star performer in 2011, and inflation has declined to single digits once again.”