Kenya faces grim prospects if Doha round succeeds

But surging imports also take away jobs. Kenya has over-specialised in some manufacturing goods.

“There is going to be de-industrialisation in textile and footwear because these sectors are not competitive. But we should not interpret the result of the study as a general de-industrialisation, since the model does not show where the country will have a comparative advantage in the future,” Imboden states.

The study underscores that the country’s long-term development cannot depend on agriculture and food processing activities alone and Kenya must aim to build comparative advantages in activities with higher value-added characteristics if it wishes to support higher standards of living.

Concerning the labour market, further specialisation in agriculture and processed foods means a more intensive use of unskilled and semi-skilled labour.

The adjustment costs will be significant.

The processing of agricultural goods will be more affected than agriculture itself.

“Doha liberalisation is not a major factor in Kenya’s development but not an insignificant one either. Trade is not that important. What matters more is development, investment and the industrial policy,” Imboden said.