High birth rate dims Kenya’s long-term growth prospects

The statistics also imply that the problem of youth unemployment and biting poverty are likely to escalate unless measures such as Kazi kwa Vijana and an aggressive investments is made in segments of the economy with the highest potential of creating jobs.

“Population growth of this magnitude comes at a high cost to a developing country in terms of providing facilities for the younger population. This means the government must stimulate higher economic growth or stop providing some social programmes,” said Prof Joseph Kieyah, the head of private sector development division at Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research an Analysis.

Out of 32.7 million people aged five years and above only 15.8 million were employed while another 2.2 million were seeking employment.

Compared to 1999, the employed proportion grew only by 1.3 million while the inactive population grew at a faster pace from 8.1 million to 12.8 million.

That trend indicates that more people are depending on the few who are employed for a living and placing Kenya’s dependency ratio among the highest in the world.

“The secret is in boosting investment and job opportunities for Kenyans especially for the middle class thereby creating a multiplier effect that will spread to other levels,” said Samuel Nyandemo, an economist at the University of Nairobi.     

Kenya will either have to tame her birth rates or cut down on its social budget that has been expanding in the last eight years to find some headroom for higher investment spending to realise its development goals.

“This data must be used immediately by economic planners and researchers as the basis for a new population policy for the country,” said Dr Boniface K’Oyugi, the chief executive officer of the National Coordinating Agency for Population and Development

Prof Kieyah linked high economic growth in the West with lower birth rates but warned the government to tread carefully in rolling out family planning campaigns saying it could stir negative passions among a section of the population.

Some analysts, however, maintained that said the high population growth could be harnessed to benefit the economy.

“The way out is to tap the thousands of skilled workforce and export both to the region and the diaspora,” said Patrick Obath, the chairman of the Kenya Private Sector Alliance (Kepsa).

“If our economy cannot fully absorb these people, other nations have a shortage of key skills which we can take advantage of and boost remittances,” he added.  said Mr Obath.

Mr Kuria Muchiru, the Kenya country leader and senior partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers said Kenya could tap into the ICT sector to create jobs in the business process outsourcing sector.

“Its now clear that the youth bulge is increasingly becoming a concern. Kenya must thus re-look at where best it can spend,” said Mr Muchiru.