A farmer in Uasin Gishu inspects his maize crop. Over-reliance on maize has pushed Kenya’s annual consumption to 40 million bags. Photo/FILE
What you need to know:
Both the Ministry of Agriculture and food policy think tank Tegemeo Institute have predicted that this year’s maize harvest will be short by about 6.1 million bags due to inadequate rainfall and diseases affecting the crop.
This year’s maize production had been projected at 43.3 million bags, but will drop to 33.9 million bags according to a report released by Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development.
The shortage is predicted at a time when other East African countries that Kenya relies on for imports to supplement the local stocks are projected to also register shortages.
A looming maize shortage is expected to raise prices of the staple grain and flour, exerting budget pressures on millions of Kenyan households.
Both the Ministry of Agriculture and food policy think tank Tegemeo Institute have predicted that this year’s maize harvest will be short by about 6.1 million bags due to inadequate rainfall and diseases affecting the crop.
This year’s maize production had been projected at 43.3 million bags, but will drop to 33.9 million bags according to a report released by Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development.
Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Felix Koskei, a fortnight ago said the deficit would be filled through imports.
This year’s production, according to the Tegemeo Institute report, represents a 15 per cent decline, coming at a time when over-reliance on maize has pushed the annual consumption to 40 million bags.
“The lethal necrosis disease ravaged 26,000 hectares of maize last year alone,” said Anthony Kioko, the chief executive officer of Cereal Growers Association in an interview.
The delay in onset of rains in lower Eastern Province, which supplements the country’s supplies from the short rains, is expected impact on market supplies.
Mr Kioko says that farmers are currently planting in eastern Kenya, when ideally the process should have started mid last month.
“From all indications, the country will register a sharp decline, the late planting of maize in eastern Kenya will obviously result in a drop as the crop will not perform well,” he said.
The shortage is predicted at a time when other East African countries that Kenya relies on for imports to supplement the local stocks are projected to also register shortages.
Millers have been relying on informal cross-border trade to replenish their stocks when the local supplies are inadequate.
The scenario, said Mr Kioko, leaves the country with an option of lifting the ban on Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO) to boost the local stocks as Malawi and Zambia, the two Southern Africa countries that Kenya has been relying on for the imports of white non-GMO maize, have put an embargo on exports.
“Malawi and Zambia currently do not have surplus that they have been having and it will be very hard for them to allow exports,” said Mr Kioko.
Gerald Masila, the chief executive officer of the East Africa Grain Council said Uganda might produce enough stocks of maize but most of its grain does not meet the required standards set by the EAC for exports.
“There are set parameters by the EAC which is based on before exports are allowed in any of the member states. Unfortunately, 40 per cent of the grain from Uganda does not meet these standards, hence they are rejected,” said Mr Masila.
He said most of Uganda’s grain is discoloured, broken, diseased or has higher moisture content, failing the set standards for exports.
