A look at Kenya's possible scenarios

A decade ago I participated in Kenya’s Scenario Planning exercise, hosted by the Institute of Economic Affairs. At that time four possible long-term scenarios were envisaged, from a most pessimistic to a most optimistic.

At the bottom end the El Nino one foresaw neither economic nor political reform, with Kenya degenerating into a failed and lawless state such as Somalia. At the other end of the spectrum came Flying Geese, where we had managed both. And in between were two others, Katiba and Maendeleo, predicated on either political or economic reform, but not both.

At the time Kenya was not in great shape. Sure we had seen the coming of multi-party democracy, greater freedom of speech, and some significant economic reform too. But the Nyayo era was coming to its ignominious end, to be replaced in 2003 by the apparently ‘unbwoggable’ NARC. ‘Flying Geese here we come,’ Kenyans were tempted to sing, but in too many ways it proved to be a false dawn.

The MoU that had brought the parties together within NARC turned out not to be an understanding at all; the quest for a new constitution aborted; and Anglo Leasing deals were being merrily concluded. Political campaigns had long since become a permanent feature of the landscape, ugly and distracting, and we entered the 2007 election badly disillusioned.

Then came the post-election violence, an opportunity for us to examine up-close and live what the El Nino scenario looked like. As for this year just gone, our politicians have preferred manoeuvring for 2012 over moving forward with the Agenda 4 reforms essential to us joining those flying geese.

Meanwhile South Africa had already undertaken its own scenario planning study, in the latter days of Apartheid. In those difficult times ‘down south’ the scenario builders could see three possibilities: either white supremacy would continue, with an ever-increasing need for repressive force; or there would be a bloody revolution; or… well we know what the third possibility looked like, as it turned out to be the smooth transition that transpired.

The journey taken by South Africa over the last decade and a half has not been devoid of challenges, some more unexpected and disappointing than others. So this year, amid ongoing poverty, insecurity and mass unemployment, another scenario planning exercise was launched.

Called the Dinokeng Scenarios (see www.dinokengscenarios.co.za, it looked forward to 2020, building alternative visions of South Africa that stem from where the country finds itself today, 15 years after Mandela became president.

Three possibilities emerged, ‘three futures’, as the report described them, named Walk Apart, Walk Behind and Walk Together. Walk Apart is the gloomiest, and depressingly it is where the authors see their country now, with a corrupt and inefficient state breeding a distrusting and self-protecting citizenry.

Somewhat less sombre is Walk Behind, whose main difference is that the state becomes more directive and interventionist, and hence more effective, in suppressing its dependent, combative citizens.

Finally, Walk Together echoes Kenya’s Flying Geese scenario. Here South Africa’s government becomes effective for entirely different reasons: strong, collaborative leadership stimulates an engaged and active citizenry.

‘The seeds of the future,’ the report states, ‘are contained in the present.’ Oh dear. But to our relief it adds that the future is not pre-ordained, dependent on whether South Africans choose to nurture generative or degenerative seeds. Above all, it will be a function of the quality of leadership and the extent of engagement between that leadership and the citizenry.

‘We have all contributed to our problems, and we can all contribute to our solutions,’ we read, and the scenario team then poses two questions. The first asks how South Africans can address their critical challenges before they become time bombs that destroy their accomplishments.

And the second is to see what each citizen of the country can do, in their homes, communities and workplaces, to help build a future that lives up to the promise of 2004. The answers to these questions, they state, will determine how they walk into their future.

As we enter 2010, what are the questions for Kenyans? What answers must we find if the 2012 election is not to send us back to El Nino? What must we do if we are to reach for that middle income status by 2030?

Agenda 4

For sure, next year is the last one for serious action on the Agenda 4 reforms before electioneering moves from 24/7 to 36/7. And what must we do to tackle corruption, public service transformation and accelerated infrastructure development? Not to mention our own time bomb, youth unemployment.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Kenyans know exactly how to answer each of these questions. They know how to do everything that is needed to finally, seriously, launch our journey towards the Flying Geese scenario. Vision 2030 spells out the social and economic destinations, and let’s hope the new constitution spells out the underpinning national framework.

Now all we need is the leadership to get serious about making it happen.
meldon@symphony.co.ke