The mass hysteria linked to Ebola is a little exaggerated

When I die, I want to die like my grandfather who died peacefully in his sleep. Not screaming like all the passengers in his car.

Many relate to this Will Rogers statement. Rogers, an American comedian during the early 19th Century, is attributed by Goodreads.com as the original composer of this one line quote whose context is appreciated for its satirical rather than historical value.

Obviously, death is not a joke. It doesn’t matter if it’s a driver losing control and propelling you to a ditch and you seem certain of your end-game in a matter of seconds.

In fact, the prospect of contracting a disease that causes you uncontrollable fever, intense weakness, a severe headache, sore throat, disgusting vomit, horrifying internal and external haemorrhaging, and irrepressible bowel movements before your certain demise is stuff we may only wish to see in horror movies.

But the sad part is that this terrifying ordeal of symptoms is not subject of some sci-fi movie script; in fact, it is exactly the symptoms of Ebola that WHO says is a high-risk communicable disease.

It spreads through human-to-human transmission, with infection resulting from direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes) with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids. Ebola has no known vaccine or cure.

Since its suspected reported outbreak in Guinea in March, various media sources have been quick to report that the disease has been “spreading like wildfire” through several West African countries, including Nigeria, Siera Leone and Liberia.

Obviously, when you look at the numbers infected and succumbing to Ebola, then, although politically incorrect, it is at least accurate to argue that the usage of the term “spreading like wildfire” may have an element of eliciting unwarranted panic.

You may want to revisit history and read about pandemics like the Black Death plague in the pre-renaissance period (1346-1353). It is said to have wiped out approximately 75-125 million people (mostly in Europe).

The plague is said to have reduced the world population by a quarter from an estimated 450 million down to 350 million in less than a decade.

The difference in historical timelines may mean any comparisons to modernity is totally like comparing apples to oranges but at least it gives you an idea of what “spreading like wildfire” means in infection terms. Don’t get me wrong.

So far, as at mid-August, an estimated 1,145 people out of a probable 2,127 infected are suspected to have succumbed to the disease in the four affected countries.

Any fatalities are worth getting worried about but, sincerely, these numbers do not warrant the amount of panic that is currently in the air.

Let me attempt to give you the statistical significance. There are 11.5 million Guineans, 4.2 million Liberians, six million Sierra-Leoneans and 170 million Nigerians.

This current exposure translates to a statistically insignificant share of the population meaning that by all means and purposes, the tragic outbreak is more or less contained.

Take this into perspective. From January to March this year in Kenya, we lost 679 people on the roads due to accidents. What this translates to is that, if you drive from the city centre to the JKIA to meet a traveller from West Africa , say Nigeria or Liberia, you have a statistically higher chance that you shall roll and die in an accident on your way than you have of contracting Ebola from the West Africans.

And this makes sense. Ebola is a dangerous communicable disease but there are tougher communicable diseases. As specified earlier, Ebola is transmitted through direct contact with the blood or bodily fluids of an infected person.

That is why some of the high risk populations have been the health workers and other care givers who come into direct contact with Ebola patients.

Good news

However, the good news is that Ebola is not airborne. It isn’t a respiratory disease like a flu. This is one of the reasons that made the H1N1 virus (swine flu) that was reported in parts of China and Taiwan some time back, dangerous since it is airborne.

CDC further confirms that you cannot get Ebola from contaminated food or water.

Another good news is that for Ebola, individuals who are not symptomatic are not contagious. Transmission ONLY occurs with direct contact with an individual who is experiencing symptoms.

What all this goes to show is that riding in a plane with a carrier of the virus who is still in his incubation period, for instance, may be harmless. I know this may not be comforting because it may mean that the person remains a moving time bomb, but such a fear may be unwarranted.

Kenyans are normally up in arms when foreign countries issue travel advisories warning their residents from visiting over security fears.

You are statistically more likely to be a victim of a terrorist act in coastal Kenya than you are of contracting Ebola in Monrovia.

Isn’t it the height of hypocrisy then that even before we establish our facts, armchair analysts and politicians are baying for KQ’s blood when it is clear that the hype around Ebola is harsher than the bite?

People perish from a lack of knowledge, says the Bible. It’s sad that KQ gave in to mass hysteria and stopped flying to some parts of West Africa.

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