Ideas & Debate

What Kenya must do to feed its urbanites

potatoes

A trader sells potatoes in a Nyeri market. Farmlands are being cleared to give way to gated communities and malls, threatening food security. PHOTO | FILE

Kenya’s population has steadily grown in the past four decades resulting in a rapid migration that is quickly filling up the towns. At the moment, an estimated 30 per cent of Kenyans live in urban areas.

By the year 2030, a short 15 years from now, Kenya’s population— 50 per cent of the projected 60 million people —will be living in the towns.

Another 15 years thereafter in 2045, two-thirds of the population, projected to stand at 80 million, will be living in urban areas.

There is evidence in every town that real estate players have long positioned themselves for this eventuality. The stock of residential houses in Kenya’s urban areas is testament to this. The housing market is ready to reap the demographic dividend i.e. high demand for housing and amenities.

This too explains the thousands of square feet of malls coming up in or close to the towns —evidence that the retail and service industry is also expecting a lot of action.

One consequence of rapid expansion of towns is the relentless conversion of land in and around them from farm land to real estate development.

As farm land in and around urban centres gives way to gated communities and malls, a question lurks in the background; where does food supply fit into the equation?

Physically, we have increasingly put more distance between the heart of the cities and arable land. Secondly, as more people move to urban set-ups, they are rendered incapable of growing or producing their own food.

This means that in the near future, rural Kenya will be left with less people located very far away, producing food for the millions living in the towns.

The less people we rely on to feed the mammoth numbers in urban areas, the greater the risk of food shortages and consequently the greater escalation of prices (high cost of living).

Feeding half of Kenya’s population that will be living in urban areas a decade from now cannot be left to chance. Any glitch in food supply can render a city immobilised, much like the fuel shortages we have encountered in our life time – only much worse.

In a decade’s time, we will have to treat the production and supply of food into our cities and towns as an exact science. We will have to get it right. We will have to farm right, harvest right, preserve right and deliver right.

A deliberate mechanism will need to be created, capable of channeling massive quantities of food into urban areas. The supply will have to be steady no matter the environmental, political or economic conditions. The current ‘marikiti’ (municipal/county farmers’ market) will not work.

The ‘marikiti’ model, which has existed for decades, is for the moment about the only channel between the farm and fork for the bigger proportion of city dwellers. Without it, city dwellers would face difficulty accessing fresh produce.

This model is however not sustainable in the face of rapid urbanisation.

For one, it is informal; it lacks control as to quantity, quality and its execution does not cater for proper storage such as cold rooms, resulting in massive losses.

It is dominated by middle-men who vary supply according to what is in season and is in the money. Further, the system is mainly fed by small-scale farmers.

This model cannot be relied upon to adequately meet the food and nutritional needs of the urban population and at the right price. How we manage the food supply into the burgeoning urban centres will directly impact on the cost of living.

Not taking into account the urban areas, this country has enough arable land to produce food for the population.

The reality for now, however, is that Kenya’s farming methods, infrastructure and post-harvest facilities are deficient to say the least. These will be the bottle-necks that we must eliminate.

But perhaps the most important element in feeding urbanites is understanding that we can no longer measure food security using the bags of maize in reserves some hundreds of kilometres away. Rather, it is the efficiency with which food can reach the inner-most part of the city that will count.

With the proposed Nairobi metropolitan region expected to span as far as Kajiado, Machakos, Tala, Thika and Limuru ,for instance, how to get food from agricultural areas to the heart of the metropolis will be very crucial.

Food will need to come in massive quantities, regularly and preservation will be key to minimising waste. Minimum order quantities will have to be observed and assured and not left to chance.

Fresh produce supply chain management will become the next most important aspect of the management of cities, much like mass transportation and will involve a lot of stakeholders ranging from farmer, storage facility owners, retail and the informal sector.

Supply of food, will have to be based on real data. Statistics on total food available within reach of cities will be critical to avert shortages. Policy will also need to be created around it. A lot of investment will be required to put up relevant infrastructure.

Infrastructure such as silos, warehouses, cold rooms, ripening chambers and mechanical drying facilities will be required on a grand scale. These will have to be closer to the cities and with much more specialised management to ensure efficiency.

Unfortunately, if we do not work out the mechanics of delivering food to urban areas at an affordable price, someone else will do that job for us.

In a past article, I highlighted the recent influx of global fast food chains into Kenya. Read ‘Fast-food boom in Kenya double-edged sword’.

We must guard against a situation where fresh produce will end up more expensive than mass produced fast food, with obvious health consequences.

Ms Mugo works in Mombasa.