Zenawi death casts shadow over Sh2tr Lamu port venture

• Top on the list is the Sh2 trillion Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Project (LAPSSET) rolled out early this year under a memorandum of understanding that Mr Zenawi signed with President Kibaki and South Sudan counterpart Salva Kiir.
• Also hanging in balance is the $684 million (Sh57.5 billion) electricity transmission project that the World Bank approved last month to allow for Kenya’s importation of power from Ethiopia.
• Apart from infrastructure development, Zenawi was a key ally of Kenya (and the West) in the search for stability in the Horn of Africa, starting with Somalia where he led the war on Al-Shabaab Islamist militia.
• Mr Zenawi’s death comes just months after he started wooing Kenyan private sector to invest in his country.
• Ethiopia remains a critical player in the continent’s unity, being the seat of the African Union, a role that saw Mr Zenawi play the role of spokesman in the content’s drive against pressing issues such as climate change.

A cloud of uncertainty hangs over multi-billion-shilling infrastructure deals that Kenya signed recently to link it to markets in the Horn of Africa following the death of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.

Top on the list is the Sh2 trillion Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Project (LAPSSET) rolled out early this year under a memorandum of understanding that Mr Zenawi signed with President Kibaki and South Sudan counterpart Salva Kiir.

“The President (Kibaki) particularly recalls the late Ethiopian Prime Minister’s passion for the joint development of the Lamu Port, South Sudan, Ethiopia Transport corridor that was commissioned early this year,” a statement sent to newsrooms by the Presidential Press Service reads in part.

It added: “President Kibaki further pointed out that the late Zenawi’s leadership and negotiation skills will forever be missed across the region and Africa in general.”

Also hanging in balance is the $684 million (Sh57.5 billion) electricity transmission project that the World Bank approved last month to allow for Kenya’s importation of power from Ethiopia.

The proposed power transmission lines marked the first phase of a $1.3 billion East Africa power integration programme, which will also attract funding from the two governments as well as the African Development Bank, and French Agence Française de Développement (AFD).

But the 21-year stranglehold on state power that Zenawi enjoyed has left doubt as to whether his successor — his former deputy and Foreign Affairs minister Hailemariam Desalegn — will continue with his policies.

Zenawi’s on-and-off quarrels with Eretria led Ethiopia to become landlocked after rejecting the ports controlled by Eretria, its former province.

Should Mr Desalegn opt to repair diplomatic relations with Eretria, experts said, the interest and urgency with which the Ethiopian government pursued the building of LAPSSET is likely to wane.

Resolve differences

“Having worked closely with Zenawi as his Foreign Affairs minister, we can’t expect major deviations from current policies,” said Mr Macharia Munene, a professor of history and international relations at the United States International University in Nairobi.

While Ethiopia and Eretria have been working to resolve their differences, Prof Munene said that thawing relations would not affect LAPSSET since it is of strategic interest to the new regime in Ethiopia.

“At the end of the day, Ethiopia remains landlocked and will be more interested in linking its economy to the Indian Ocean via LAPSSET than to the Red Sea which Eretria offers,” said Prof Munene.

Ethiopia remains a critical player in the continent’s unity, being the seat of the African Union, a role that saw Mr Zenawi play the role of spokesman in the content’s drive against pressing issues such as climate change.

“Together with other IGAD leaders, we worked for regional peace, stability and prosperity,” President Kibaki said.