Columnists

KISERO: Will Gulf diplomatic crisis hurt Kenya?

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A view of the streets of Qatar. FILE PHOTO | NMG

The diplomatic crisis in the Gulf got me reflecting on our blooming relations with Qatar and whether our national economic interests - if any - may be at risk.

On Monday, member states of the Saudi Arabia-led Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) mobilised Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to sever ties with Qatar, setting the stage for the biggest diplomatic crisis among key members of Opec since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.

The orchestrated move has since been joined by Yemen and Libya. The GCC accuses Doha of supporting terrorism.

What are our economic interests and what does it mean for our diplomatic relations with these powerful oil-producing countries that have imposed economic sanctions on Qatar?

When a country with whom you are closely diplomatically engaged is accused of sponsoring terrorism, are you also exposed?

These are pertinent questions because the Qataris have lately been doing a lot of business in Kenya.

Just the other day, Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamin bin Hamad Al- Thani – accompanied by a big delegation of businessmen from Doha - visited Nairobi where they signed bilateral agreements with President Uhuru Kenyatta.

Even though the details of what transpired in the meetings with Mr Kenyatta were worded in diplomaticspeak, we all know that Qatar’s diplomatic relations with sub-Saharan Africa is premised on three pillars.

Food security is their most important foreign policy objective in this part of the world. As a matter of fact, there was a time they were lobbying the government to give them 300,000 acres of land for farming.

But it is in the financial sector where their interests have been most evident. First, the Qataris have been keen on building for us the proposed Nairobi International Financial Centre. Indeed, a key highlight of the recent meetings with Mr Kenyatta was an announcement that the proposed financial centre had been a top agenda item during the parleys.

Their keen interest in our financial showed as far back as April 2014, when Qatar National Bank (QNB) tabled a request to the government to buy a local bank – their preference - a large institution with a regional footprint.

But what has intrigued observers even more was the fact that QNB has recently adopted the practice of regularly publishing its audited accounts in local newspapers.

The largest bank in the Middle East and northern Africa region, with a whopping $140 billion (Sh14.2 trillion) in assets, its move confounded many observers because banks only publish financial statements in markets where they are licensed to offer banking services.

It looked like QNB was putting a teaser for an impending big acquisition.

When Kenya floated the Eurobond last 2014, QNB Capital placed a bid of $200 million (Sh20.4 billion) – a strong indicator of the level of interest and confidence by the group in Kenya.

It is also on record that the group has expressed an interest in arranging a Sukuk (an islamic sovereign bond) for Kenya.

If the economic blockade on Doha persists for long, how will it affect dealings with Kenya?

I don’t claim any deep domain knowledge in the geopolitics of the Middle East. But after several visits to Doha over the years, I have found myself regularly following the goings-on in that region very closely.

I agree with pundits who derisively describe the GCC as a coalition of kings and a loose alliance of undemocratically-constituted states.

I don’t buy the theory that this blockade has been imposed because Doha is allegedly sponsoring terrorism.

The GCC’s true motive is to keep a lid on popular protest in the Middle East. If they had their way, they would even close down Aljazeera.