Pressure on short term T-bills yields in tight liquidity

Regulator Central Bank of Kenya building in Nairobi. PHOTO | SALATON NJAU | NMG

What you need to know:

  • Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) data shows  that the 91, 182 and 364-day T-bill auctions last week resulted in bids of just Sh8.6 billion, equivalent to just a third of the Sh24 billion offered.
  • The 91-day moved down marginally to 8.205 per cent, the 182-day rose to 10.32 per cent and the 364-day up to 10.89 per cent.
  • The currency has hovered around the 104 unit mark to the dollar in the past one week, weakened by increasing dollar demand from importers in the energy and food sectors.

Six-month and one-year treasuries yields are expected to come under upward pressure as tight liquidity in the market constrains investor bids.

Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) data shows  that the 91, 182 and 364-day T-bill auctions last week resulted in bids of just Sh8.6 billion, equivalent to just a third of the Sh24 billion offered.

The overall subscription rate of 35.8 per cent is the lowest recorded year-to-date.

For the six-month and one year papers, interest rates edged up on lower subscriptions of 42 and 16 per cent respectively, while the rate came down on the three month T-bill, which also had the best subscription rate at 56 per cent.

“The effects of the liquidity environment were felt on the T-bills with total subscriptions down to Sh8 billion against an offered amount of Sh24 billion.

The 91-day moved down marginally to 8.205 per cent, the 182-day rose to 10.32 per cent and the 364-day up to 10.89 per cent.

This is in line with our expectations on the current upward pressure on short-term rates due to money market liquidity constraints,” said Genghis Capital in a fixed income note on Friday.

Investors are also thought to be eyeing this month’s 10-year Sh30 billion Treasury bond, which is on sale until July 25.

Liquidity in the market has tightened in recent weeks due to CBK withdrawal in support of the shilling—mainly through the Repo market where the rate of 7.99 per cent is closely matching that of the 91-day T-bill.

The currency has hovered around the 104 unit mark to the dollar in the past one week, weakened by increasing dollar demand from importers in the energy and food sectors.

Some importers are also bulking up their dollar positions ahead of the general election, which is likely to be tightly contested with some concerns of unrest.

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