Economy

Voter registration leaves Jubilee, Nasa in tight battle for numbers

iebc

65-year-old Elizabeth Mugambi registers as a voter in Meru on Sunday. The IEBC final tally have left the opposition National Super Alliance (Nasa) and the ruling Jubilee Party with a bruising battle for numbers in the August 8 General Election PHOTO | FILE

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) yesterday announced the final tally of the just concluded voter registration drive, showing the major protagonists locked in a tight battle of numbers.

The figures have left the opposition National Super Alliance (Nasa) and the ruling Jubilee Party with a bruising battle for numbers in the August 8 General Election – judging by new registrations in their strongholds.

The IEBC said the two leading coalitions shared almost on a 50-50 basis the 3.7 million new voters registered at the end of the second and final phase of mass voter registration that ended on Sunday.

Nairobi, a battleground county, registered the highest number of new voters at 461,346 followed by Kiambu (225,995), Nakuru (175,756)) and Meru (169,803), which are considered Jubilee strongholds.

Nasa strongholds also made the most out of the just-ended exercise led by Mombasa which registered 141,686 new voters, Kilifi (123,866), Machakos (114,320), Kakamega (114,126), Kisumu (98,857), Homa Bay (90,612), Bungoma (88,441), Kisii (87,892) and Kitui (83,299).

The figures are, however, not conclusive as eligible but unregistered voters have up to March 6 to register at constituency level.

The balance of numbers is expected to change once the IEBC completes registration of Kenyans living in five African states of Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and South Africa as well as the 8,198 prisoners with identity cards who are spread across 118 correctional facilities.

IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati, however, warned that the number of newly-registered voters may drop to 3.2 million once the commission cleans up the voters’ register – an exercise that is expected to begin on March 7.

Besides Nairobi, other battleground counties that recorded high numbers of newly-registered voters include Kajiado (79,733), Narok (63,650), Trans Nzoia (65,353), Mandera (43,322) and Turkana (34,865).

Completion of the latest voter registration exercise has left the six coastal counties of Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Tana River, Lamu and Taita Taveta that are considered Nasa strongholds with a total of 1,733,722 registered voters, up from 1,171,240 in March 2013.

The central region of Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a and Kiambu counties that are pro-Jubilee Party now has 2,912,659 registered voters up from 2,195,975 in March 2013 while the four Western counties of Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia and Vihiga also regarded as Nasa strongholds now have a 1,922,166 registered voters up from 1,434,573 in 2013.

The three lower Eastern counties of Machakos, Makueni and Kitui, considered pro-Nasa, collectively have 1,526,013 registered voters up from 1,068,693 in March 2013.

Another Nasa stronghold of Nyanza comprising Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Siaya, Kisii and Nyamira now has a total of 2,686,168 voters compared to 1,942,138 in 2013.

The upper Mt Kenya region comprising Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi – a Jubilee stronghold now has a total of 1,244,568 registered voters up from 873,132 in March 2013.

Another pro-Jubilee Party region comprising North and South Rift counties of West Pokot, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, Laikipia, Nakuru, Kericho and Bomet now has 3,250,193 registered voters, up from 2,440,845 in March 2013.  

It brings the total number of registered voters in pro-Jubilee zones to 7,407,420 while the total number of registered voters in Nasa zones stands at 7,868,069 assuming that all the registered voters from the two coalitions’ strongholds will cast their votes come August 8 this year.

That means the August elections will be determined by the so called battle ground counties of Nairobi, Kajiado, Narok, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Samburu, Marsabit, Isiolo and Trans Nzoia.

Mr Chebukati said the commission will close the register on March 7 after registering Kenyans in Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Africa.

This is despite an order by a judge that registration of voters continues until May 17, exactly 60 days to the elections.

“As a commission, we need to, at some point, close the register for verification. We will close it on March 7, but (as per the court order), we will not close out those who want to register,” Mr Chebukati said, evading questions on whether those who register after March 7 will vote in the August poll.

In the registration numbers, transfer of voters reared its ugly head, with a record 1,001, 819 voters applying to change voting locations in the 35-month period.

And though the commission did not provide details, politicians have been accused of ferrying voters to places of interest to shore up their numbers.

“We observed that there are places that recorded more transfers than new registration of voters,” the IEBC said.

Mr Chebukati said that may affect the size of polling stations, or even the number, given the law limiting the number of voters per polling station to not more than 500.

He said registration in prisons starts today in an exercise, targeting 5,952 convicted inmates and 2,246 suspects in remand.

The registration was to start on Monday, but was delayed by logistical challenges, he said.

The IEBC was targeting 6.1 million new voters by February 14, before a court extended the registration by five days.