Ideas & Debate

Covid-19: Missed chance to set out Kenyan agenda

uhuru

Health Secretary Mutahi Kagwe. FILE PHOTO | NMG

Lockdown is here. All personal movement by public and private means is prohibited, as are gatherings of more than five. Malls, arcades, non-food stores, hardware shops, salons, lodges and garages are closed.

Only stores selling food, agro and vet stuff, detergents and pharmaceuticals are open. Ministry of Health standard operating procedures (SOPs) apply. The same for supermarkets practicing social distancing.

Established food markets will open, with social distancing SOPs, so long as food sellers never go home during lockdown, and find accommodation close by. Noisy thinkers and professionals matter less.

Indeed, GDP-growing factories and construction sites may continue operations if they similarly offer living quarters. Ditto essential services like medical, veterinary, telephone, door-to-door deliveries, banking, garbage collection, fire brigade, petrol stations and water provision. Otherwise, close down.

Cargo transport may continue. All government workers, outside army, police and health, electricity, water and telephone workers, will stay at home. For vulnerable families identified by the government, unga (maize flour), beans, powder milk, sugar and salt and the like will be provided.

OK, don't panic. That's Uganda, not Kenya. The words above nuance a Monday national address by President Yoweri Museveni in which he commanded to 44 million citizens "more guidelines on preventive measures and the need for a shutdown" that began two days ago and ends on April 15. He quipped that this April 1 commencement date was "Wise Person's Day, not Fools' Day".

That's 14 days. For South Africa's 57 million people, an elitist sounding 21 day military-patrolled lockdown prohibits jogging, dog walking and the sale of cigarettes and alcohol. Nigeria's 14-day "Lagos plus Abuja" shutdown covers a population of 20 million; while Zimbabwe's 21-day "stay at home" affects 17 million. Then there's India's 21-day "mega-lockdown" affecting 1.3 billion people and counting.

Zoom across to Singapore, where's there's no lockdown yet. Incorruptible entry restrictions and internal tracking and surveillance helped keep their "Corona-numbers" low. But so too has social distancing where real spacing guidelines are applied in local food courts, supermarkets and restaurants. Where employers are required to, and have staggered working hours into at least three "blocks" with the proviso that no block contains more than half the staff.

These are the contrasts. We're searching for best practices, but this virus controls the timeline, as increasingly visible Dr Fauci of the US NIH reminds us. Fast growing numbers in the West tell us "mitigation vs suppression" is old news. Now it's all about impending recession and economic stimulus.

For Kenya, this is week three of coronavirus, or week five after the Emergency Response Committee was formed. We've had a blitz of daily televised updates and warnings. We've had a couple of formulaic presidential briefings that have gone down with the people like a lead balloon, not up like Google Loon.

When our media ask about lockdown, they are reminded that we don't properly curfew. Instead we're told the modelling predicts 10,000 infections by the end of April in a "do nothing" scenario, like we're, shockingly, "doing nothing'. The prognosis by real Kenyan medical experts is we will do badly for months, not weeks. Sadly, we have also "talking heads" who suggest we throw money at the problem.

What are we learning, because this is a hugely dynamic teachable moment across the globe? This week, we set up a big business (not private sector) Emergency Response Fund, a sort of "Kenya for Kenyans", with a fat-cat committee to boot, for a problem without a timeline.

Our initial committee — not in the budget — was supposed to coordinate threat response, medical capacity enhancement, surveillance, government and private sector, medical supply purchase (with no thoughts for infrastructure and equipment), economic impact assessment and mitigation, and technical, financial and human resource partner assistance.

We've heard no daily proactive; only infections, deaths, recoveries and quarantines. Then lectures.

This second one — no budget — will fund acquisition of medical (wo) men, machines and supplies, emergency relief to the vulnerable, old and poor in urban informal settlements, stimulus to MSMEs, compulsorily-acquired quarantine facilities and surveillance capacity building for researchers.

Now, is it that government no longer exists and coronavirus responses will be privately provided?

What's this to do with lockdown? In a roundabout way, choices and strategy. As we choose leaders, we make choices, based on promises about food, health, hygiene and "little" incomes not as electoral blather, but real needs, short and long.

Then we expect human security action that reflects health, food and economics (jobs/incomes), plus individuals, families, communities and "proper" politics.

Let's look differently. Lockdown is extreme, but Africa's deciding. In this fast emerging human behavioural continuum from self-quarantine to self isolation/treatment to social distancing to curfew to lockdown, did we miss an opportunity to set out a different "end-to-beginning" Kenyan agenda?

That's our human security dilemma. It's been said Kenya's a business, not a country. Simply, we won't lockdown because we can't. Here's two ideas for the rest of 2020. Just Be Saving and Do Be Safe.

We're on our own, but, luckily, Easter hasn't been cancelled yet. Someone up there is watching.