Kenya is planning to build a 1,000MW nuclear plant in Kilifi on the North Coast at a cost of Sh500 billion. Indeed, many countries are reviving their old nuclear plants or developing greenfield projects to meet renewable energy targets amid growing power demands for electric transportation and data centre.
Familiar facts about nuclear power development are its high capital costs, long project lead times, expensive waste disposal, and ever-present environmental risks. Its pluses include low-carbon footprint, and stable baseload supplies to national grids.
High electricity costs are a consistent topic in various economic forums in Kenya, more so because of impacts on industrial production costs and competitiveness.
High power bills are an ever-present fodder for political disquiet among domestic and SME consumers.
It is therefore important that the Kilifi nuclear project economics and underlying assumptions are expertly scrutinised to ascertain that the plant will indeed deliver least cost power to the economy.
Underlying national power supply and demand projections should be scrutinised to ensure that Kenya will have sufficient power at all times in the future, and that surplus idle capacity whose costs are passed through to consumers is avoided.
Nor should surplus capacity by new projects crowd out priority generation categories which should be detailed in a national power generation mix policy that addresses least-cost tariffs, transmission costs, environmental impacts, indigenous vs imported inputs, and overall national energy security that minimises dependence on power imports.
Of concern is the possibility of nuclear generation crowding out geothermal power, which has mammoth proven capacity, reasonably low incremental development costs, and proven low tariffs. Further, Kenya has just signed up a multi-purpose Grand Falls Dam project on River Tana with a projected combined output of 1,200 MW of hydro and solar.
This is as many firms seek opportunities to invest in solar power, which when accompanied with energy storage technologies will supply unlimited grid-fit baseload electricity.
If the nuclear power project passes the cost and generation mix test, it should select appropriate technologies.
Smaller modular reactors (SMRs) are the latest proven technology offering lower capital and operating unit costs, and more efficient and safer operations.
SMRs are reputed to have cooling options other than water, which means they do not have to be located adjacent to a river. Modular units can be added on as power demands increase, thus reducing upfront capital costs.
Yes, nuclear can be the energy solution that we have been looking for, but every project justification checklist box must be correctly ticked without undue influence from vested interests.
