In a month, African leaders will elect a new chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC). Among contenders is Kenya’s Raila Odinga, a political figure who has championed democracy and Pan-Africanism for decades.
His candidacy is not just a reflection of his personal ambitions; it’s a crucial test for Kenya’s foreign policy under President William Ruto, and a lens through which to evaluate Africa’s leadership challenges.
Raila Odinga’s credentials are impressive. As the African Union’s High Representative for Infrastructure Development, he spearheaded initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and regional connectivity projects, emphasising economic integration as the key to Africa’s prosperity.
His vision for the continent aligns with the aspirations of many Africans: A united, economically empowered, and globally respected Africa.
Yet Raila’s bid faces hurdles, many of which are rooted in Kenya’s domestic scene.
Persistent protests, occasioned by public dissatisfaction with the government’s economic policies and human rights violations continues to grow, with many citizens feeling that the country’s leadership has failed to address their struggles.
Governance concerns, including allegations of a compromised legislature, executive, perceived political interference in the judiciary and questions about judicial independence, further complicate Kenya’s standing. These internal tensions raise an important question: Can Kenya, a country grappling with domestic fractures, credibly position itself as a champion of pan-African unity?
Kenya’s domestic realities are particularly relevant because foreign policy begins at home. A country’s ability to lead internationally is intrinsically tied to its domestic stability.
The discontent within Kenya not only casts a shadow over Raila’s campaign but also highlights the broader challenge of aligning pan-African ambitions with local realities.
This isn’t the first time Kenya has vied for the AUC chairmanship. In 2017, Amina Mohammed, a highly qualified Kenyan diplomat, failed to secure the role despite her extensive credentials.
Her loss mirrored the challenges of bloc politics within the AU, where Francophone and Anglophone divides, regional alliances, and perceptions of overreach often play decisive roles. Raila, despite his stature, will have to navigate these same dynamics.
His competitors bring their own strengths. Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, with decades of diplomatic experience, offers a pragmatic approach, particularly on issues of peace and security. His candidacy appeals to nations seeking a neutral figure who can bridge divides.
Meanwhile, Richard Jandriamandrato from Madagascar brings expertise in trade and economics, which aligns with the AU’s focus on AfCFTA implementation.
However, his country’s peripheral role in Africa’s main security and trade issues may limit his appeal as a unifier.
Raila’s advantage lies in his experience and ability to articulate a transformative vision for Africa. His relationships across the continent and his pan-Africanist credentials make him a formidable candidate. However, his strengths also present challenges.
Raila remains a polarising figure in Kenyan politics, and this divisiveness could reflect on his continental campaign. His candidacy might also face resistance from countries wary of Kenya’s regional dominance and his close association with Nairobi’s political elite.
For President William Ruto, Raila’s bid is a double-edged sword. Success would elevate Kenya’s status as a continental powerhouse, affirming its leadership credentials. Failure, however, would expose cracks in Kenya’s diplomatic influence and raise questions about Ruto’s foreign policy strategy.
Broadly, Raila’s bid highlights the need for Africa’s leadership to balance visionary Pan-Africanism with grounded governance. While Raila champions unity and economic empowerment, the AU surely cannot afford to overlook the importance of member States addressing their domestic challenges. A
frica’s future depends on leaders who can translate lofty ideals into tangible progress, ensuring that continental ambitions resonate with local realities.
Odinga’s candidacy embodies this delicate balance. He is a symbol of Africa’s aspirations but also a reminder of the continent’s unresolved tensions between unity and diversity, ambition and pragmatism. Whether his bid succeeds or falters, it offers an opportunity for reflection—not just for Kenya, but for the entire AU.
As the continent prepares to make its choice, the question remains: Can Raila bridge the gap between Kenya’s domestic complexities and Africa’s collective aspirations? His success would not only affirm his vision for Africa but also signal Kenya’s ability to lead on the continental stage.
However, failure will illustrate the enduring challenge of aligning national realities with Pan-African ideals.
Mikhail Nyamweya has completed the Master of Science in African Studies at the University of Oxford with a focus on African Politics
