Ideas & Debate

Look into genesis of Kenya, Tanzania uneasy trade ties

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President Kenyatta with the President of Tanzania John Pombe Magufuli. FILE PHOTO | NMG

The recent episode between Kenya and Tanzania where air travel to and from the two countries was affected due to some disagreements over Covid-19 protocols, was both unfortunate and disruptive to travel and trade between the two East African Community(EAC) nations. For EAC to sustain effectiveness, there should be trust and political rapport among participating nations, in addition to having diplomatic processes that sort out routine differences when they arise.

Although the airline issue was finally sorted out diplomatically, the “tit for tat” drama witnessed earlier was an indication of mistrust between two neighbours, a reflection of relations between Kenya and Tanzania that are far from perfect. Similar incidents had occurred at land borders during the earlier months of the corona pandemic.

Between Kenya and Tanzania, it has been historical “sibling mistrust” which for many years has witnessed instances of disruption to travel, trade and business between the two states.

Although emergent from the same British colonial rule in early 1960s, Tanzania and Kenya adopted quite different development models immediately after independence, and this led to a loss of social, economic and political convergence between them, a situation that has to some extent persisted to this day.

The free market Kenyan economy developed much faster, with Tanzania and its socialist economy playing an economic catch-up game with Kenya. All along Tanzania adopted policies which were perceived by Kenyans as limiting their participation in Tanzanian economy, with Kenyans usually reading an attitude of suspicion and absence of welcome by Tanzanians. Tanzanians on their part have mostly perceived Kenyans as over-bearing and over-assuming in pursuit of economic opportunities. How to cure these perceived and lingering mistrusts should be a subject to be worked on by the leadership of the two countries.

In the course of my work, I have extensively travelled across all corners of Tanzania, and without any doubt, Tanzania has superior advantages that put its economic potential way above its EAC neighbours. In addition to being part of EAC, the country is a member of a much larger Southern African Development (SADC) trade block, which gives Tanzania an edge over its EAC partners. Further, Tanzania shares borders with eight countries, all with stable trade potential.

Tanzania has probably the largest natural resources base in the region, with huge reserves of various minerals; large natural gas resources which are already locally commercialised as plans for exports are in progress; a large coastline with multiple ports which permit regional transit transportation; and above all expansive moderately populated fertile land excellent for large scale farming of food and industrial crops.

Tanzania has another key enabling “asset” to be envied by its EAC neighbours. The country has a nearly homogenous socio-political system that sustains peace and harmony allowing the country to peacefully develop its resources at its own planned pace. Specifically, this has allowed Tanzania to gradually work towards catching up with Kenya, which is indeed already happening. It is a fact that Kenya is increasingly relying on Tanzania for food supplies, a fact that Tanzania often uses to its advantage.

The political order in Tanzania significantly contrasts with Kenya’s political habits which are characterised by disruptive and violent electoral cycles. Every five years, Kenya loses no less than three years of economic development potential as it drowns itself in electoral politics. A sobering reality is that in another ten years Tanzania will most likely have overtaken Kenya economically, unless Kenya rethinks its politics.

Yes, there will be competition among the EAC states, and this is quite healthy. We have seen competition in infrastructure (ports, railways, pipelines, airways) and this is entirely correct for indeed the smartest regional logistics models should win.

Also, there will be instances when EAC members will exercise individual sovereign decisions to genuinely protect the interests of its people. And whereas this may at times over-ride EAC rules, it should be respected. We have seen this happen with Covid-19 protocols and specific agricultural imports controls.

Finally, trust and warmth between regional states is a function of political chemistry between regional leadership, and these are aspects that should always be cultivated. As for Kenya and Tanzania, let us focus on real areas of mutual benefits, and less on perceived differences.