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Changes to expect in future jobs

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On average, employees will need 101 days of retraining and upskilling in the period up to 2022. FILE PHOTO | NMG

The labour market is set for drastic changes as technological advances and growing interest in Artificial Intelligence (AI) accelerate, creating new jobs while killing others, according to a new report.

For instance, it is projected that work done by machines and algorithms will rise from 29 per cent currently to over 50 per cent by 2022 following increased penetration of AI, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) The Future of Jobs Report 2018.

These changes will be driven by four factors including; high-speed mobile Internet, AI, adoption of big data analytics and cloud computing.

These WEF says that these trends are being accompanied by a set of socio-economic shifts such as economic growth, expansion of education and middle class and growing interest in green technology.

The changes are projected to come in the following formats.

Constant retraining for workers

On average, employees will need 101 days of retraining and upskilling in the period up to 2022. Emerging skills gaps — both among individual workers and companies’ senior leadership — may significantly obstruct organisation’s transformation management.

Depending on industry and geography, between one-half and two-thirds of companies are likely to turn to external contractors, temporary staff and freelancers to address their skills gaps.

A comprehensive approach to workforce planning, reskilling and upskilling will be the key for positive, proactive management of such trends.

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Division of labour between humans, machines and algorithms

Employers interviewed by the WEF expect a major shift in the division of labour between humans, machines and algorithms for the tasks currently performed by employees. Currently an average of 71 per cent of total task hours across the industries covered by the Future of Jobs Report 2018 are performed by humans, compared to 29 per cent by machines or algorithms.

By 2022 this average is expected to have shifted to 58 per cent task hours performed by humans, and 42 per cent by machines or algorithms.

In terms of total working hours, no work task is yet performed predominantly by machines or algorithms today. By 2022, 62 per cent of organisation’s data processing and information search and transmission tasks will be performed by machines.

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Industries will experience different effects of tech changes on jobs

High-speed mobile Internet, AI, big data analytics, and cloud technology are set to spearhead companies’ adoption of new technologies between 2018 and 2022.

The WEF says many organisations will also look to machine learning and augmented and virtual reality for considerable business investment.

By contrast, investment in the kind of robotic technologies imagined in movies and popular fiction will remain somewhat more niche over the period — but is nevertheless picking up pace. Stationary robots are likely to be the most widely adopted by 2022 — but different industries have distinct use cases and preferences.

Net positive outlook for jobs amid significant job disruption

The WEF projects that by 2022, today’s newly emerging occupations would have grown from 16 to 27 per cent of the employee base of large firms globally, while job roles currently affected by technological obsolescence are set to drop from 31 to 21 per cent. In purely quantitative terms, 75 million current job roles may be displaced by the shift in the division of labour between humans, machines and algorithms, while 133 million new job roles may emerge at the same time.

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Growing occupations include roles such as data analysts, software and applications developers and e-commerce and social media specialists — jobs that are significantly based on, and enhanced by, the use of technology. However, also expected to grow are job roles based on distinctively ‘human' traits, such as customer service workers, sales and marketing professionals, training and development, people and culture, and organisational development specialists as well as innovation managers.

New tasks will drive demand for new skills

It is projected that by 2022 the skills required to perform most jobs will have shifted significantly. Global average “skills stability”— the proportion of core skills required to perform a job that will remain the same — is expected to be about 58 per cent. That means workers will see an average shift of 42 per cent in required workplace skills in the period leading up to 2022.

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Skills growing in prominence include analytical thinking and active learning as well as skills such as technology design, highlighting the growing demand for various forms of technology competency.

However, proficiency in new technologies is only one part of the 2022 skills equation. “Human” skills such as creativity, originality and initiative, critical thinking, persuasion and negotiation will likewise retain or increase their value, as will attention to detail, resilience, flexibility and complex problem-solving. Emotional intelligence, leadership and social influence as well as service orientation are also set to see particular increase in demand relative to their current prominence today.