Kenya in list of 19 countries at risk from Ebola epidemic

Kenya is one of 19 states the World Bank says could report an Ebola case in the next 30 days, even if the outbreak in West Africa is contained.

The news will alarm sceptics afraid that cases of the deadly disease will be mishandled as happened in Nigeria, the United States and Spain.

It will also dismay tourism industry players still reeling from the impact of a similar World Health Organisation (WHO) announcement two months ago. 

The Bank’s Ebola Impact Index, released on Wednesday, shows Kenya has a five per cent chance of having to deal with the disease in the next one month if the three worst-affected West African countries fail to contain its spread.

The risk falls to one-in-100 if the world takes urgent steps to contain Ebola’s spread in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The US and Britain are sending in military personnel to help fight the haemorrhagic fever.

Researchers estimate that if the West African epidemic is brought under control, Kenya is likely to report only one Ebola case in the next 30 days.

The worst-case-scenario could see the country handle as many as eight cases before the first week of November, the index shows.

World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim said the risk to Kenya and other nations that are ill-prepared for Ebola endangers the whole world. The future of the entire African continent could be at stake, he warned.

“The international community must act on the knowledge that weak public health infrastructure, institutions and systems in many fragile countries are a threat not only to their own citizens, but also to their trading partners and the world at large,” Kim said in a statement.

The statement added: “The enormous economic cost of the current outbreak to the affected countries and the world could have been avoided by prudent ongoing investment in health systems-strengthening.”

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon also warned things “will get worse before they get better” at an international meeting on the Ebola crisis in Washington.

READ: Ebola a warning to East Africa on threat of neglected diseases

The World Bank report comes less than two months after WHO put Kenya on a red list of about 40 states likely to be hit by Ebola due to their air transport links to affected countries.

Many airlines, including Kenya Airways, have since suspended flights to some or all of the three hardest hit countries.

While the World Bank does not envisage a serious human catastrophe, the fear of contagion, which restricts association with others, is likely to hurt Kenya’s economy in case it reports an Ebola case. When the WHO red list was announced, Korean Air immediately cancelled its flights to the country.

The bank notes that fear of contagion has already reduced labour force participation, closed places of employment, disrupted transport and motivated some governments to close borders with affected countries.

Kenya faces greater risk as a result of its role as a gateway to the Comesa and East African trading blocs.

Whereas the country attracts foreign direct investment thanks to its sea, air and road transport links to most countries in Africa, these same attributes lower its attractiveness as Ebola spreads.

Of the 20 states in the Comesa and EAC trading blocs, only Kenya appears in the World Bank’s list of high-risk states.

Others are South Africa, the US, the United Kingdom, Belgium, France and Germany, all exposed because of commercial links with the Ebola hotspots.

The rest of the countries in the list are located in West and North Africa, exposed because of their proximity to the affected countries.

Like Kenya, South Africa has a one-in-100 chance of reporting an Ebola case in the next 30 days even if the disease is properly contained in West Africa, but with two cases likely to be reported over the period.

The country’s exposure worsens to nine in 100 chances, with a possibility of 46 cases, if the disease gets out of hand in West Africa.

Overall, the bank estimates that the regional cost of West Africa’s Ebola epidemic could reach Sh2.9 trillion ($32.6 billion) by the end of 2015.

The cost is arrived at after reviewing impacts in a “Low Ebola” scenario, which assumes rapid containment in West Africa, and a “High Ebola” situation, which refers to slower containment with broader regional contagion.

The bank says the 19 states in its highest impact list will not necessarily be affected by Ebola, nor will they necessarily greatly suffer if they are. Instead, the Ebola impact index only indicates that countries in the list are at greatest danger of potential infection.

Close to 4,000 people, mainly in West Africa, have been killed by the deadly virus. Updated WHO records indicate that Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, the US and Spain have all recorded at least one Ebola death.

An actual case would devastate Kenya’s beleaguered tourism sector, whose players are already blaming terrorism-related insecurity and fear of contracting Ebola among the reasons for a recent slump.

“While there are no reported cases, tourists have had the perception that… Kenya might also suffer from Ebola at some point. So a number of them have opted to keep off,” Kenya Tourism Board marketing representative for Germany, Switzerland and Austria tourist markets said in an earlier interview.

On Tuesday, health professionals questioned Kenya’s preparedness to handle an Ebola outbreak. Doctors have said that key border towns like Busia, Malaba, Isebania and Namanga lack facilities to quarantine and treat patients who cross into the country with Ebola-like symptoms.