Efficient weather forecasts vital as the Earth heats up

We have many times in the past complained that the Department of Meteorology does not provide enough, timely and accurate weather forecasts to the economy, and that the country has mostly been caught unprepared when the worst weather conditions strike.

This time around, the weathermen have made a visible effort in informing Kenyans of poor short rains and that we should plan and prepare accordingly.

Whether the forecast will turn out to be accurate or not, it is always proper to err on the side of caution.

We have already seen the milk industry hyping the dairy farmer with dry weather incentives.

The Kenya Meat Commission announced plans to cope with an anticipated influx of emaciated livestock from the pastoralist communities.

Food shortfalls

We have also witnessed government activities and plans for potential food shortfalls.

It can also be assumed that power-generating agencies are already planning to recall emergency thermal power producers to forestall impacts of reduced Tana water levels.

As the impacts of global warming on weather patterns become more pronounced, we need to ask ourselves if we have a sufficiently resourced Met Department with the best there is in weather forecasting technologies, for in deed the department has become an important tool for the country’s economic and emergency planning.

The Met department will need to acquire sufficient capacity and technology to accurately project weather to the hour, day, week and month to facilitate economic and social planning.

We know this detail of forecasting is possible because we see it done elsewhere and this should be taken as a challenge and an achievable target.

Economies of scale and need for wider regional coverage may dictate that weather forecasting be done at EAC level.

Meteorology, was in the old days a common services department of the defunct regional community.

Referring to the 2007/09 drought, there was a litany of lessons hopefully learned from the destructive effects of the drought.

We assume that these lessons and experiences, still very fresh in our minds, have been “cut and pasted” in preparation for the impeding drought.

We also recall that the June, 2010 budget did allocate funds aimed at specifically reducing future drought impacts by building for example, dams, boreholes, irrigation programmes and dry condition farming.

Hopefully, these funds are already in the process of being committed to relevant projects, in good time perhaps to reduce impacts of reduced short rains.

This takes me back to 2009 Copenhagen climate meeting and the clamour for renewed global commitment to combat climate change and probably replace the Kyoto Protocol with a new agreement in 2012.

It appears that the world, under pressure from the recent global economic meltdown, has pushed the green agenda lower the rung of priorities, which is understandable.

But this has not pushed away the ever present threat of global warming as we see harsh weather patterns in the form of severe floods and droughts bombarding the globe with vengeance.

In Kenya, we appear to be pushing ahead with the green agenda, probably not because of any global protocols, but because of its economic benefits and its local environmental desirability.

Commitment by Kenya to cheaper electricity, which happens to be green energy, seems to be on course as wind and geothermal projects advance to financial commitments.

Businesses like Mumias Sugar and KenGen are already focusing and investing in green projects to tap carbon trading.

Although we do not appear to be receiving public updates on the Mau reforestation programmes we assume that the green agenda is still going on.

Programmes to reduce over dependence on wood based fuels for cooking and lighting are visible and these include the new LPG regulations and the rural electrification programmes.

But the delayed introduction of a clear and definite programme to legalise and commercialise charcoal business is denying the county numerous opportunities, especially on forest cover conservation.

Tax revenues

An efficient charcoal business presents huge opportunities for employment for our youth and a steady stream of tax revenues for the exchequer.

Perhaps, absence of visible progress in formal charcoal trade development is informed by shared responsibility between two ministries, i.e. that in charge of forestry and that in charge of energy

Whatever the impacts of global warming and droughts in particular, Kenya should not see people dying of hunger or feeding on unwholesome foods like dog meat and bush berries.

Sound food security planning is necessary to ensure that vagaries of global warming never catch us unprepared and that we shall always be in a position to feed the nation.

After all the new Constitution does guarantee Kenyans freedom from hunger as a basic human right.

Mr Wachira works with Petroleum Focus Consultants. [email protected]