When Elon Musk’s satellite internet firm Starlink entered the Kenyan market in July 2023, it was bullish that it would reorder the country’s connectivity landscape and set new industry standards.
The service came packaged as a decisive alternative to years of uneven broadband investment, promising speeds that outclassed much of Kenya’s existing infrastructure at the time.
Consumers responded instantly, turning Starlink into a premium sensation that attracted households, SMEs and county governments, seeking guaranteed performance beyond terrestrial limits.
Its early speeds exceeded 200 Mbps in areas where fibre deployment had been slow for years, instantly raising expectations across the market.
The Starlink system, unlike fibre-powered connections, consists of a vast network of small satellites in low earth orbit, flying at altitudes between 340 and 1,200 kilometres.
Users on the ground access the Internet via phased-array user terminals, commonly known as satellite dishes. These dishes automatically align themselves with the passing satellites, allowing for a continuous and stable Internet connection.
Slightly over two years down the line, however, Starlink’s operation has taken a sharp different turn, with network strain, falling performance and slowed sales, forcing the firm into an unlikely partnership with local market leader Safaricom.
The surge that made Starlink a national sensation quickly exposed capacity gaps that the firm struggled to resolve, leading to suspended sales in key counties and a steep decline in performance.
At the onset, the multinational’s assertive posture unsettled established providers, whose networks had evolved gradually and who now faced a competitor leveraging global scale to rewrite local performance expectations.
Safaricom and Jamii Telecoms protested the entry, warning the regulator about interference risks and claiming Starlink’s model sidelined domestic licensing structures.
At the time, their objections reflected both regulatory concerns and market anxiety as Starlink’s early speeds exposed inefficiencies across Kenya’s largest broadband networks.
Safaricom responded with sweeping speed upgrades, that multiplied its fibre offerings at no extra cost, signaling how deeply Starlink had pressured incumbents.
Starlink’s moment of glory would, however, be short-lived as the impact of the market excitement introduced new pressures, that the multinational had underrated when projecting its Kenyan expansion.
The company seemed to have assumed that its satellite beams would manage surging uptake across dense urban fringes without the need for significant ground-capacity reinforcement.
Slightly over a year into active operations, users began reporting performance fluctuations that contrasted sharply with the stability that defined the service’s early months.
Latency increased, speeds dipped and the initial promise of uniform performance across counties began unraveling. The stress became visibly evident when Starlink suspended new activations in Nairobi, Kiambu, Machakos, Kajiado and Murang’a citing capacity constraints.
The suspension created the first meaningful twist in Starlink’s Kenyan chapter, by revealing that the company’s global infrastructure was not invincible. It also signaled that Starlink had underestimated how quickly Kenyan users adopt new technologies that demonstrate measurable value.
Local ISPs utilised this shift to rebuild momentum, through fibre expansions and improved fixed-wireless deployments across regions Starlink struggled to serve consistently.
These expansions enabled terrestrial providers to reclaim customers who earlier believed satellite internet represented a permanent advantage.
Starlink attempted to reignite growth by slashing hardware kit prices to Sh45,500, down from the Sh89,000 set at the onset in 2023, aiming to capture broader market segments.
In September last year, the firm also introduced a rental plan allowing users to pay Sh1,950 monthly for hardware instead of the Sh49,900 purchase cost. The lower pricing attracted new buyers but worsened congestion by onboarding more users onto an already strained network.
This created a striking paradox where Starlink’s growth strategy directly undermined its performance guarantees. Rising subscriptions deepened the overload, further reducing the speeds that had defined Starlink’s early value proposition.
Users who bought the equipment expecting premium performance encountered a service that increasingly resembled conventional broadband during peak hours.
By March this year, Starlink’s subscriber numbers fell for the first time since launch, dropping by more than 2,000 in just three months from last December.
The decline unfolded just as the multinational was pushing some of its deepest discounts, making the gap between marketing and performance increasingly visible.
The strain challenged Starlink’s assumption that it could succeed without forming alliances with local infrastructure operators.
The reality forced Starlink to shift from its initial independent stance toward a more collaborative model shaped by market necessity.
Just this month, SpaceX signed a continent-wide agreement with Vodacom that gave Safaricom the authority to resell Starlink equipment and integrate satellite backhaul.
In the deal, Safaricom gains access to satellite-backed connectivity that expands rural coverage without undertaking costly fibre projects across low-density areas, while Starlink gains a distribution partner that stabilises its performance and prevents future congestion.
While Starlink’s early boom revealed Kenya’s appetite for high-speed internet that bypasses infrastructure bottlenecks, the bust exposed the structural demands associated with delivering that performance sustainably.
Starlink’s performance also comes at a time when the fixed-internet market has continued expanding, with the latest data showing sustained growth in fibre subscriptions across major towns.
Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) figures indicate that fibre connections have increased steadily as operators deepen last-mile installations in response to rising demand.
The rise in terrestrial connections has been supported by network upgrades undertaken by Safaricom, Jamii Telecoms and Wananchi Group to improve reliability and reduce downtime.
Industry filings show that several providers have expanded their metro-fibre footprints into high-growth residential estates where subscriber numbers have climbed consistently.
Telecom operators have responded to the surge in traffic by investing in additional backhaul capacity and expanding interconnection links to maintain service quality.
Starlink’s promotions contributed to fluctuations in hardware sales, with spikes recorded during discount windows followed by slower periods once standard pricing resumed.
Market data shows that equipment imports rose sharply during last year’s promotions before declining after the activation freeze in the five congested counties.
However, the increased onboarding placed further strain on Starlink’s beams, prompting the company to reassess its capacity strategy ahead of the Safaricom agreement.
The new partnership now allows Starlink kits to be distributed through Safaricom’s established retail channels, ensuring wider availability and more predictable supply.
The Safaricom–Starlink deal therefore marks a significant transition point, concluding one phase of Starlink’s entry and defining the terms of its next chapter in Kenya.
Safaricom is expected to deploy satellite backhaul selectively in rural zones where extending fibre remains cost-intensive or logistically challenging.
Vodacom’s involvement is also expected to streamline Starlink’s continental operations by coordinating hardware flows and aligning technical integration across markets.
The arrangement gives regulators greater visibility into satellite deployment patterns, facilitating closer monitoring of service quality and usage distribution.
CA is set to capture the impact of the partnership in its upcoming sector review, which will detail performance trends and customer movement across competing networks.
The next reporting cycle will show whether the collaboration stabilises Starlink’s speeds in its busiest corridors and restores user confidence after months of fluctuation.
The data will also reveal how Kenyan consumers balance satellite and fibre choices as providers adjust offerings to match shifting demand.
As the market absorbs these changes, operators will be watching how hybrid connectivity shapes competition in both urban and rural segments.
