How Kenya’s weather forecasting has evolved

Weather forecast provides valuable information that guides farmers, policymakers, and other stakeholders. Scientists have confirmed that February 2024 was the warmest globally due to changing climatic conditions. Despite these shifts in climate patterns, Kenya anticipates enhanced rainfall during the long rainy season from March to May. Business Daily interviewed David Gikungu, the director-general of the Kenya Meteorological Department, for insights.

How has Kenya's weather forecasting evolved over the years?

Over time, there has been a remarkable development in the techniques used for observation and forecasting as well as the methods of analysis for accuracy. In recent years, there has been a shift from using traditional instruments to using new technologies that aid forecasting. As an example, the sunshine observer, which used to be a popular tool, has been replaced with more advanced technology-based tools.

The sunshine observer was a glass ball-like instrument used to measure the duration of sunshine. However, with more advanced technology, such traditional instruments are no longer necessary.

Is Kenya ready to use advanced technologies such as AI in weather prediction?

In Kenya, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being tested for its potential use in modelling weather patterns. To ensure the accuracy of the AI model, sufficient data needs to be available, including detailed information on specific weather parameters such as wind speed and direction, variation of day and night pressure, humidity, sunshine hours, and rainfall. This data would allow the AI model to make informed predictions and provide valuable insights into weather patterns and environmental changes.

Accurate advance weather forecasts are increasingly becoming important as the planet heats up and more extreme weather events occur; how has Kenya Met prepared for this?

We must maintain a strong connection with the latest scientific research and observations to stay informed and up-to-date. By monitoring changes in our instruments, we can detect any increases in the levels of heating that we have not seen before. If this is the case, there may be significant implications to consider, and we will provide our users with clear guidance to help them navigate the situation.

How precise are our models?

The forecasting models are as precise as you train them to be because there is no room for guessing when using data.

How does Kenya Met ensure the public has access to clear, concise, and up-to-date weather information?

We are a public entity that values accuracy and reliability in providing information. When forecasting weather patterns for the region, we hold meetings with experts from various fields and involve multi-sectoral teams and ministries. Our role is to advise key users of our data, including the government, on how to use the information we provide. We prioritise authenticity by observing and analysing the data. Our goal is to promote trust and informed decision-making across the country.

Kenya Met has recently forecast an early onset of rains in East Africa. This prediction has generated interest among farmers. However, there is a need for more clarity on converting this information into practical advice for farmers. Can you explain how Kenya Met guides farmers in adapting their farming practices to the early rainy season?

Weather patterns vary across the country, so we take a deliberate approach by conducting meetings with farmers. During these meetings, we explain the different weather conditions in each county, which are determined by various observatory factors. We also advise the farmers on what crops to plant and when to plant them.

What is indigenous knowledge's role in weather forecasting?

Everything has a limit; some things are permissible, and others are not. We have walked together with indigenous knowledge proponents. We can pick out the areas that agree and even help them advance to the extent they can come up with a standard observatory. We are happy to help them build on that, and there are areas where indigenous knowledge is valuable.

What is the one thing that you'd say, "if we get this right, we are going to make a difference in people's lives?”

If we get every person to understand what the forecast means to their area then I will have scored. A lot of times, it is a matter of miscommunication, misinformation and lack of understanding of the information relayed.

Are we likely to experience La Nina after recent El Nino?

Right now, according to the forecast, signals for El Nino have not died out. As a result of El Nino, we stand a chance of increased rainfall in the long rains season due to the presence of higher-than-normal temperatures over the Indian Ocean.

The season that we are currently in with the heat is determined by the presence of the overhead sun. As it heats directly, the temperatures are bound to rise.