Small-scale maize farmers in Uasin Gishu County gather the crop. Domestic stock is expected to run out following a deficit of 10 million bags in last season’s output. FILE
What you need to know:
Agriculture Secretary says the government expects up to three million bags through cross-border trade with Uganda and Tanzania to alleviate a shortage of 10 million bags before the next harvest.
Uganda and Tanzania traditionally supplement maize production in Kenya through cross border business but this may be constrained by competing export destinations.
The situation could be worsened by the ban on exports from Zambia which was instrumental in supplying Kenya with white maize in 2011 following a severe shortage.
Kenya will consider importing maize in May when the domestic stock is expected to run out following a deficit of 10 million bags in last season’s output.
Agriculture Secretary Felix Koskei said the government expects up to three million bags through cross-border trade with Uganda and Tanzania to alleviate a shortage of 10 million bags before the next harvest.
“We expect to ease the shortage by getting maize stocks from the East Africa Community bloc. The stocks are supposed to last until May when we will consider imports,” says Mr Koskei.
Uganda and Tanzania traditionally supplement maize production in Kenya through cross border business but this may be constrained by competing export destinations.
Uganda, which on average produces surpluses, has from 2011 been exporting up to 60 per cent of its maize to South Sudan, owing to high demand and good prices there while Tanzania has found a ready market in nearby Malawi which is facing an acute shortage.
“Over time, we have been relying on Uganda for a steady supply of maize, but owing to good market that they have established in South Sudan, the bulk of their harvest is exported there,” said Kenya Millers Association chairman Diamond Lalji.
The situation could be worsened by the ban on exports from Zambia which was instrumental in supplying Kenya with white maize in 2011 following a severe shortage.
Malawi and Zambia are the two key southern Africa nations from where millers and traders normally import maize.
In Zambia, maize production in 2013 had been forecast at 2.6 million tonnes, 11 per cent lower than the previous year, according to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).By the end of last, year, Malawi needed more than $30 million to cover its shortfall in production and to feed more than 1.63 million people, according to the World Food Programme (WFP).
On Wednesday, Mr Koskei announced that there would be a deficit for two months — June and July—which is expected to be filled through imports.
Uganda will not be in a position to alleviate the shortage during the two months because its harvesting season begins a month later in August.
East Africa Grain Council chief executive officer Gerald Masila said production in the region would also be hit by the maize lethal necrosis disease, necessitating imports possibly to the end of the year.
Harvest
Statistics from the ministry indicate that there were 13.3 million bags of maize stock in the country with farmers holding 8.5 million bags, traders 2.1 million, with NCPB having 2.2 million bags.
An acute maize shortage in 2011 saw the price of a two-kilogramme packet of maize flour increase from Sh90 to Sh150. The price has since gone down to Sh115 following a bumper harvest in 2012.
Millers warn that pronounced deficits could see a replay of 2011, exerting an additional burden on households who are already grappling with high prices resulting from the Value Added Tax (VAT Act) 2013 that imposed a 16 per cent duty on items that were previously zero-rated.
Parliament amended the Bill to remove essential goods like flour, milk and bread from the VAT net.
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Note: The results are not exact but very close to the actual.
