It could be a bright sunny day, marking a nation’s triumph and economic resurgence, or, on the other extreme, an Eastern Sunset Scenario, depicting an unfavourable environment marked by an ineffective state. It could also be something in between — a Jua Kali Kingdom or the Managed Economic Stagnation. Economists and social scientists have worked out four scenarios that will be influenced by the actions the country takes today.
Kenya 2040: A Nation’s Triumph and Economic Resurgence
Sarah wakes up on August 9, 2040, to the nostalgic sound of a child's bicycle bell and a newspaper thudding against her front door.
The headline, 'Kenya still number one!', proudly announces Kenya's fifth straight year as Africa's top performer in the UN's Human Development Index.
The strides made during the 2030s in poverty reduction, healthcare, and education have transformed Kenya into a global contender, boasting world-class transport infrastructure and one of Africa's most diverse economies.
As Sarah enjoys breakfast, she discovers the conclusion to a corruption case she had been following closely.
Kenya's judiciary, characterised by independence and efficacy, plays a pivotal role in holding public officials accountable.
Corruption cases are swiftly investigated, showcasing a legal system unafraid to sanction those who fail to account for public resources.
As Sarah observes her Brazilian neighbours, she contemplates the realization of the anticipated economic growth in real GDP.
The initial projection foresaw an average annual growth rate exceeding 5 percent for a decade, followed by a subsequent decade with an average annual growth rate surpassing 4 percent reaching Sh22.7 trillion, with GDP per capita surpassing $6,000.
