The November 2021 Glasgow COP26 was perhaps the last high-level forum where oil companies, investment banks, activists and governments jointly defined a pathway to reduce fossil fuels production to meet carbon reduction targets.
The loud message then was to reduce fossil fuels production. But this was short-lived. For when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, energy security took centre stage over climate, as countries focused on securing oil and gas availability and affordability.
The 2022 COP27 in Egypt was understandably low-key as countries were preoccupied with energy security. The scheduled COP28 forum in UAE later this year will likely find countries and companies still redefining preferred energy transition paths guided by emergent energy and climate realities, which I will attempt to describe.
Oil and gas demand will prevail until such time that renewable energy supplies and applications have established sufficient presence to sustainably replace oil and gas without jeopardising energy security.
Until this happens oil and gas investments and production will continue, with individual oil producing companies and countries assessing investment options against transitional risks. And for Kenya, this will apply to Turkana oil prospects.
It is also a fact that renewable energy and its applications have been universally accepted as the global climate and economic solutions of the future, with countries now competing in control and leadership of renewables technologies and materials supply chains.
This is a perfect investment environment that attracts significant global capital to accelerate the ongoing energy transition, while directionally increasing opportunities to meet global climate targets. Specifically for Kenya, we need timely and enabling renewable energy policies and strategies to attract these investments.
The past one and half years have also confirmed that national energy security pragmatism takes precedence over many other factors, including climate change. Indeed, availability and affordability of energy are essential for economic and political stability of any country seeking to be globally progressive and competitive. This is a new reality that will have to be contended with in the future global climate fora.
Finally, playing “climate victim” by Global South countries will not help, as nations which are potential funders for climate adaptation are preoccupied with own economic problems.
Each climate-impacted country needs to proactively implement its climate resilience projects, which are most likely to attract multilateral and bilateral support. In fact, sound projects can be certified and monetised in global carbon credit markets, an entreprise that is already happening in Kenya.
