How to lift 20m Kenyans out of poverty in 10 years

In 2015/16, more than a third of the Kenyan population lived in poverty, that is 36.1 percent measured at the national poverty line. This begs the question on what can be done to help lift more people out of poverty. Or – as is currently being debated in Kenya – what needs to be done to lift half of Kenya’s poor people out of poverty in the next 10 years?

With an estimated population of 51.4 million people and a projected poverty rate of 33.1 in 2018 based on standard growth assumptions, Kenya had about 17 million poor people in that year. Reducing this number to half or 8.5 million individuals in 2028 requires more than a reduction by 8.5 million individuals as Kenya’s population was growing at an estimated rate of 2.3 percent in 2018. Assuming this population growth rate to remain constant, Kenya will have a population of 64.5 million in 2028. With the objective to have no more than 8.5 million individuals living in poverty, this implies a poverty rate of 13.2 percent – or lifting about 1.3 million individuals out of poverty every year.