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Meteorological records show 2017 was Kenya’s coldest year

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Mshomoroni residents walk through flooded waters after heavy morning rains on November 1, 2017. FILE PHOTO | NMG

Kenya just closed its coolest year of the past three, the Kenya Meteorological Department said in a finding that is contrary to expectations given that 2017 was also when the country had its worst drought in half a century.

The Met data shows that 2017 closed at an average temperature of 22.05 degrees Celsius (°C), the highest having been recorded in March at 30.9 °C.

Lodwar in Turkana County remained the hottest town for the third year running, having clocked an average temperature of 35.9 °C.

Nyahururu was the coolest station with an average of 23.1 °C

The data shows that 2017 was cooler than 2015 and 2016.

Of the three years, the hottest was 2015, having posted an average annual temperature of 22.82 °C followed by 2016 at 22.76 °C.

Rain failure

Peter Ambenje, the Kenya Meteorological Department director, said that while it might have been expected that the drought would result in overall high temperatures, that wasn’t the case.

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“Remember the drought started in 2016 and the 2017 drought was a result of the failure of rains in both seasons in 2016 and the high temperatures in January-February-March 2017.

But then come to July-August, the temperatures had dropped to below averages recorded in previous years. That is how we ended up with a cool year,” he said.

“These cooler temperatures mean that the country has nothing to worry about in terms of climate change, because even the 30-year average is below 30 °C.

Yes, we are living in times of climate change — which is how the frequent droughts come about — but our low temperatures mean that Kenya is warming much slower than the rest of the world and that the mitigation activities being put in place are working.”

Although Kenya cooled by 0.04 °C in 2017, the World Meteorological Organisation (WHO) reports that 2017 posted high temperatures globally, to close at approximately 1.1 °C above the pre-industrial era.

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Hottest years

This effectively placed 2017 among the top three hottest years in history, but still cooler than 2016, which still holds the record for the hottest year.

“In addition to the global warming due to rising greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere, the climate also has a naturally occurring variability due to phenomena such as El Niño, which has a warming influence, and La Niña, which has a cooling influence.

"The strong 2015/2016 El Niño contributed to the record temperature in 2016. By contrast, 2017 started with a very weak La Niña and also finished with a weak La Niña,” says the WMO, in a statement posted on its website.

“Temperatures tell only a small part of the story.

The warmth in 2017 was accompanied by extreme weather in many countries around the world.

The United States of America had its most expensive year ever in terms of weather and climate disasters, whilst other countries saw their development slowed or reversed by tropical cyclones, floods and drought,” said Petteri Taalas, the WMO secretary-general.  
East Africa was affected by the La Nina, hence the drought conditions witnessed across the region, and seriously impacting on the region’s ability to feed itself.

The resulting food shortage and a rise in prices left some 18 million people across Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya facing acute food insecurity, while parts of Somalia and South Sudan slid into famine.

Heavy rains

The 2015/16 year had an El Nino effect which was said to be the second strongest since 1997, causing heavy rains across many parts of the world, while also plunging Southern Africa into a serious drought.

In 2017, a La Nina happened, drying out the Horn of Africa and flooding much of Southern Africa.

Historically, La Niña correlates with below-average rainfall in the months of December to February in parts of Eastern Africa, whereas Southern Africa is wetter and cooler than normal.

El Niño is an event of unusual warming of the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean in December and it affects the weather around the world, especially rainfall patterns in the tropics.

El Niño is the warm phase of a larger phenomenon called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The opposite of El Niño is called a La Niña, which describes a cooling in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation recently published global temperature data, which differs greatly with the data published by the Kenya Met.

FAOStat reports that Kenya’s temperature actually went up by 1.179°C in 2017, with January posting the highest temperature increase of 2.215°C.

“Well, this does not mean that Kenya Met’s data is wrong or that the global data is more accurate, no,” says Mr Ambenje.

“The global data is derived from satellite averages, while our data is based on actual readings on the ground. That’s why you see such a huge difference in the readings. But the accurate position is that for us, 2017 was cooler, not hotter.”

Extreme weather

Many parts of the world have already started 2018 with extreme weather, including heat, cold, precipitation and high winds, with widespread impacts on public safety, transport, energy and health. 

Kenya hasn’t seen anything out of the ordinary yet, but the Met department says dry weather will continue over most parts of the country until the start of the long rains season in March.

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In the meantime, the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) is watching the situation closely, as the country struggles to recover from last year’s drought. And while much of Kenya is greening again, parts of the arid lands remain dry.

In its Vegetation Condition Index dated January 29, the NDMA reports that Isiolo County is the most affected, with zero recovery, extreme vegetation deficit and getting worse by the day.

This county, according to the NDMA, is in need of an immediate drought response plan.

Balambala, Lagdera and Dujis in Garissa County as well as Bura and Galole in Tana River County are not doing well either and face a tough two months to the next long rains season in March.