World Bank says Kenya has failed poverty reduction test

What you need to know:

Kenya’s poverty levels will stand at 30 per cent of the population in 2030, a new World Bank report says.
Economists, however, argue that unforeseeable changes could alter the historical growth trends in favour of the country.

Kenya is on track to becoming the bedrock of poverty in East Africa, ahead of politically fragile Burundi, a new World Bank report says.

The report says Kenya’s poverty levels will stand at 30 per cent of the population in 2030, citing historical growth of the gross national product per person.

Uganda, which has recently discovered commercial oil deposits estimated at 3.5 billion barrels, will have the lowest rate of poverty of about six per cent of the population by 2030. Rwanda, whose GDP growth remains the highest in East Africa, will be ahead of Kenya with a poverty rate of 13 per cent.

Tanzania, whose leading export is currently gold, will have 19 per cent of its citizens living below the poverty line by the same year.

The World Bank expects economic conditions to be even better in neighbouring Ethiopia where poverty will be wiped out, as will be the case in South Africa, Cape Verde and Seychelles.

Economists, however, argue that unforeseeable changes could alter the historical growth trends in favour of Kenya, placing it ahead of its neighbours.

“We should take any reports on poverty trends in Kenya with a pinch of salt. Between now and 2030, many intervening factors could arise and we don’t have to end up last as suggested by the report,” said Joseph Kieyah, an economist at the Kenya Institute of Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA).

Prof Kieyah said Kenya had made huge strides in economic growth and development in recent years that should have an impact on poverty levels.

“We are on the right track and we will do much better when county governments are fully functional. There may be some teething problems right now, but we expect the counties to significantly contribute to economic growth,” he said.

The World Bank report offers sobering news for implementers of Kenya’s Vision 2030, which has to date favoured infrastructure development and whose position on poverty alleviation remains unclear.

(READ: Kenya poverty level constant for six years)

Former Vision 2030 Delivery Secretariat director-general Mugo Kibati’s latest status report on the achievements of the secretariat during his tenure does not say anything about poverty alleviation and does not mention the “poor” or “poverty” at all.

Mr Mugo’s publicist, Alfred Ng’ang’a, defended the statement, arguing that it was the secretariat’s mandate to tackle poverty broadly through programmes such as infrastructure development, ensuring food security and water provision.

“We may not have mentioned poverty reduction directly, but improving infrastructure should enable the poor farmer to reach markets while food security and access to clean water directly impacts on poverty,” he said.

Trillions of shillings are earmarked for Vision 2030 projects including the building of a standard gauge railway line from Mombasa to Kisumu, the Lamu Port and South Sudan, Ethiopia corridor, popularly known as the LAPSSET project.

The list of multi-billion- shilling projects includes the building of Kapenguria – Lodwar Road, Isiolo–Moyale-Marsabit Road, and bypasses in Nairobi, Mombasa, Meru and Kisumu.

But the World Bank report says these multi-trillion-shillings projects will reduce poverty by 12 percentage points in the next 17 years from the current level of 42 per cent.

The projects are expected to push economic growth to 10 per cent per annum, but it remains to be seen whether economic growth will translate to poverty reduction.