Low divorce rates in Kenya suggest a slowing economy

Recently the causes of divorce in Kenya made headlines. I was surprised at the high rates; you would expect the topic to be included among the “non- issues” that President Uhuru Kenyatta alluded to during US President Barack Obama’s visit to Kenya.

In the past, Market Talk included divorce rate as one the unconventional indicators of economic performance. Other indicators included sale of mascara and red ties, where an increase suggests a struggling economy where opportunities are scarce and people have to compete aggressively to stand out from the crowd.

For an improving economy, higher sales of male underwear, short dresses or mini skirts are indicators.

Higher divorce rates indicate a thriving economy. The basis of using higher divorce rates as a positive economic indicator is that there is a close relationship between marriage and resources. There is a lower rate of separation among poor couples compared to the rich ones.

This is because during difficult economic times married couples realise that two is better than one. It costs hundreds of thousands of shillings to file a divorce case, in addition to emotional costs that often lead to low productivity. During difficult economic times a couple realises that it is cheaper to make up than to pay divorce lawyers.

Out of the top four reasons identified as the reason why marriages fail, three were linked to wealth. Infidelity, cruelty and polygamy were other causes.

The top reason was lying about money. This means that the funds has to be there in plenty first for them to be the bone of contention.

The second reason for broke marriages was infidelity. The economics about this is that it usually takes financial resources to cheat. This is evidenced by research findings from an online dating website for married people. They found that the top three car models owned by their members are Audi, Mercedes and BMW. 

The third reason for divorce was cruelty while the fourth was polygamy. Polygamy, like infidelity, suggests that choices have consequences meaning more money lead to more choices which can lead to divorce.

In the recent fight against cheap illicit brews the wives of addicted husbands opted to seek help from the government instead of divorcing their husbands. Like Bill Clinton said, “It’s the economy, stupid”.

The Kenya report indicated that between 2010 and 2015 a total of 1,246 divorce cases had been filed at the Nairobi Milimani Courts. The trend seemed to have been going up almost every year, from 101 cases in 2001 to 369 in 2008. This relates closely to economic growth.

The cases declined to 106 in 2010 increasing every year to 270 in 2013, declining in 2014 to 245 cases while the first half of this year saw 123 cases.

This means that divorce rates in Nairobi have either declined or plateaued in a similar way to the World Bank’s economic growth projections.

This suggests a structural weakness in the economy and points at validity of using social trends to predict the economic direction before the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics releases the official numbers. 

The writer is the marketing director of SBO Research. E-mail: [email protected], Twitter @bngahu