Good data should free Kenya from current focus on the insignificant to tangibles
A section of the standard gauge railway, which is under construction: Apart from focusing on the actual building of infrastructure, it is better to review impact. PHOTO | FILE
At the end of the first month of 2017, our “post-truth” world looks increasingly uncertain.
A new war has emerged between “alternative facts” on the one hand, and “big data” on the other. Think “fact checkers” vs “data scientists”. Yet African leaders seem to prefer a “pre-truth” world.
“Pre-truth” world? This is the sort of place where everything is “basic, simple and natural”. While “post-truth” appeals to emotions, “pre-truth” prefers ignorance. So, politics is about the elite interests of identity rather than the daily issues of the people.
Pre-truth is a place where data remains undiscovered or ignored, scientific thinking is a luxury and technology is all about hardware gimmicks. It rails against “poverty, ignorance and disease” while clamouring for “sovereignty and independence”.
That’s the Kenya that wanted one of our own to lead the AU Commission.
Is this a harsh assessment? Let’s think about it. We are heading into an election in which the incumbent claims success in delivering to the people, which the opposition disputes.
Where the opposition accuses the incumbent of excessive corruption, and the retort is “to what purpose was all the money we are now using applied in the past?”
Nobody mentions that a big part of current mega-spending is debt-fuelled, that is, it represents future taxes. Nobody speaks to the notion of value for money. The election becomes our ultimate “truth or dare” moment.
Kenya’s “pre-truth” world relies on three things. First, short memories, especially when it comes to data. What is the length of new roads that the Jubilee Administration has completed since 2013?
According to the 2016 Budget Policy Statement (BPS), we are talking about 1,194 kilometres. Yet President Uhuru Kenyatta’s 2016 State of the Nation address spoke to a total of 3,000km roads in three years. A year earlier, the BPS claimed a total of 1,039km in new road build.
The 2016 Statistical Abstract produced by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) only adds to the confusion.
A quick calculation shows that, between 2012 and 2015 Kenya added only 24 kilometres of new road to the national network. This is broken down as the tarmacking (i.e. conversion) of 1,742km of earth/gravel road, plus said 24km in new tarmac.
Think about this. The 2016 BPS states that almost 150,000km of road has been maintained in the past three years. The Statistical Abstract informs us that our road network stretches to a total of 60,000km.
What sort of road quality requires annual maintenance, if any?
But mostly, and back to the point, where is the truth?
Second, a “head in the sand” attitude. This week, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee stated that it is too early to draw conclusions on the effects of the Banking Amendment Act.
Yet a quick perusal of the business and financial press headlines informs us of several short-term observations — slowed private sector credit growth (blamed instead on the election), falling housing demand, reduced credit access for individuals and SMEs on account of risk, a flight to the quality of risk-free Treasury paper, even as government borrowing continues to balloon upwards.
Even the IMF has chimed in, again, warning of the growth-dampening effects of interest caps. Ah, but it’s still too early to draw conclusions, right?
The third requirement for a pre-truth world is the “tyranny of micro-numbers”. Let’s go back to infrastructure and look at a few national projects the 2016 Energy and Infrastructure Sector Report proclaims.
Completion of 822 housing units in Kibera, with 245 market stalls. Completion of 101 retail markets and wholesale hubs. Construction of 153 new government buildings.
There’s more. Like registration of 611 new government houses. Installation of 1,117 street lights. Nine district headquarters completed under the 2009 Economic Stimulus Programme. 23 sub-standard buildings demolished. 37 footbridges constructed.
Because this is a serious newspaper, I have left out numbers relating to the construction of ablution blocks.
Is this apparently “national” stuff actually visible to the naked eye?
“Pre-truth” is not exclusively a Jubilee problem, but a Kenyan one, at three levels. First, in its disdain for data. Forget Big Data, which is largely unstructured.
We don’t seem to have got our heads around structured small and large data, especially that related to administrative reporting. Jubilee’s “digital” twist has been to spin Bad Data.
This is ironic given our loud claims in 2015 to being a pioneering country in the “Data Revolution”.
The second challenge revolves around the “so what” question. In other words, what does the data tell us about outcomes for people?
Why are we measuring the length of roads built, rather than the extent of usage? Let’s not forget the Kanu days, where certain new roads in the Rift Valley were popularly used for “drying maize.”
Monitoring and evaluation
When I think in the context of an issues-based 2017 election, I will compare competing manifestoes on their statements on outcomes, particularly those relating to the Sustainable Development Goals such as no poverty, zero hunger, good health and wellbeing, quality education, gender equality, clean water and sanitation, affordable and clean energy, decent work, reduced inequality and responsible consumption and production.
Then I will look for the data — baselines and targets — and thinking around monitoring and evaluation that is underpinned by a spirit of public accountability.
The final challenge – really around the “head in the sand” attitude is about “knowledge and information as power”. It’s “us vs them” attitude typical of any government that dismisses “data generated outside its four walls”.
This is probably the most difficult one to address. It requires an acceptance of a wider data ecosystem of people, institutions, sources, generators, analysts and users spanning business, non-State actors, academia and researchers, media and a host of other “data stakeholders”.
Indeed that is the core of the data revolution that Kenya needs.
Simply the one answer to the post-truth world and our pre-truth setting lies in a new respect for Good Data.
Without it, we shall be “the stagnation we don’t want to be”, rather than the “change we want to see”.
