Switching off thermal power a short-term solution

I would like to comment on the debate on whether Kenya should switch off thermal power.

I have not been retained by the thermal power plants operating in Kenya, but having been an employee in the energy sector for long, I understand the background and historical circumstances that led to the installation of thermal plants in the 1990s and why they remain critical to the effective functioning of the electricity sub sector for the time to come.

In 1999 – 2000, Kenya suffered a hard-hitting drought that saw the then single source of the power – hydroelectric power dams drying up and not able to supply power to the grid. For those who remember, power rationing become a new term in town to the public.

There comes a time when the economy needs power at any cost. Diesel plants were invited on emergency basis to install their thermal generators and hook up to the grid to plug the deficit created by the drought.

The government sought support from the World Bank to provide financial support to facilitate independent power producers to supply diesel plants to the country. In fact, the independent power producers (IPP’S) were sourced and procured competitively then. The sub sector therefore was left to implement the series of planned generation projects under the Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) to replace the expensive sources with cheaper ones.

This process has witnessed progress with the retirement of some diesel plants including the Thika road one etc, and more progress is being made to realize the noble objective. Geothermal, wind and mini hydro projects that are in progress are examples that illustrate this progress.

The fact that the country has not been subjected to power rationing most recently and that the electricity system is stable even when one or two machines are under routine maintenance or off on account of breakdown is further evidence that the sector is on the right path and should not be stampeded to make short term decisions that might have long-term negative effects to the country.

‘Switching off thermal power’ will send negative signals to investing and lending communities that Kenya does not honour contracts.

Kenya does not have guarantee that another drought like 1999 – 2000 one will not revisit us. Going by the current installed generator capacity numbers we are still running a heavily rain dependent system.

Of the installed capacity of 2,351 MW, hydroelectric takes up 36 percent, thermal (33 percent), geothermal (29 percent) and other renewables at two percent.

I feel the argument should not be to ‘switch off thermal power’, it should be how do we replace close to 850 MW of hydroelectric power with either wind or better still geothermal so that we are not revisited in the future by diesel power plants in the event of drought.

What should worry us more in my view is the long-term credit worthiness of the off –taker (KPLC) so that it continues to attract and guarantee power purchase agreements (PPAs) and attract investors to grow generation.

We should also consider tapping more into renewable energy sources like geothermal, wind, solar and mini hydros where possible to replace thermal and enhance transmission and distribution of infrastructure to make it flexible and robust besides engaging the private sector more for ideas on growing demand and enhancing the quality of customer service.

‘Switching off thermal power’ is a short-term solution. The long term solution should be to develop alternative cheaper sources that will make thermal less prominent in the energy mix. In fact, if we do this, we don’t have to forcibly switch them off; they will voluntarily leave on their own because they cannot survive on capacity charge for long.

Ben Chumo chairman, Eagle HR Consultants, and former MD and CEO, Kenya Power