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Good decisions, bad luck: Why the most effective managers think in bets
Duke’s central message is: good management is not about always making the right decision. It is about making the best decision possible with the information available, then learning from the outcome.
“Thinking in bets starts with recognising that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck. Learning to recognise the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about” --Annie Duke.
Why is it that we don’t make a distinction between a decision and the outcome? How do you make smarter decisions when you don’t have all the facts? Do all smart decisions lead to a great result? Can you make a stupid decision and get a very positive outcome?
