Bleak economic outlook as below normal rainfall now expected

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What you need to know:

  • The weatherman Tuesday warned that Kenya will receive below normal rainfall during the peak season that ends May in what will hurt food production, raise electricity bills and cut economic activity.
  • The so-called long rains season traditionally starts from March until May, but hasn’t started in most parts of the country and the Meteorological Department now forecasts that the poor weather will persist to the end of the next month.
  • This signals reduced food production, less earnings from farming and a rise in electricity price as the country share of cheaper hydro power drops, increasing reliance on expensive diesel generators.

The weatherman Tuesday warned that Kenya will receive below normal rainfall during the peak season that ends May in what will hurt food production, raise electricity bills and cut economic activity.

The so-called long rains season traditionally starts from March until May, but hasn’t started in most parts of the country and the Meteorological Department now forecasts that the poor weather will persist to the end of the next month.

This signals reduced food production, less earnings from farming and a rise in electricity price as the country share of cheaper hydro power drops, increasing reliance on expensive diesel generators.

Agriculture accounts for close to a third of Kenya’s annual economic output and earnings from sector support purchase of goods like beer, fuel and airtime.

“Based on the current conditions and the projected weather conditions, dry conditions are expected to dominate most parts of the country leading to further deterioration of food security and water resources,” Director of Metrological services Stella Aura said in a statement.

“Areas affected by the drought conditions will require interventions to support livelihoods.”

The dry weather conditions are generally expected to persist in most parts of the country, and could only improve during the short-rain season which falls between October and December, Ms Aura said.

Already households are paying more for basic food items such as staple maize flour, milk, potatoes and vegetables due to a supply shortage.

Besides food, the cost of fuel for the month ending May 14 has increased by up to Sh5 per litre, raising the cost of transportation and industrial production, which will eventually be passed onto consumers.

The dry weather across much of Kenya is likely to curb its economic growth this year, the World Bank said last week, cutting its forecast to 5.7 percent growth.

Kenya’s economy expanded by an estimated 5.8 percent last year.

“The medium-term growth outlook is stable but recent threats of drought could drag down growth,” the World Bank said.

“Risks include drought conditions that could curtail agricultural output, especially if the country’s grain-growing counties are affected,” the bank said.

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