When President Uhuru Kenyatta takes to the podium to speak to the nation today in what should be his last Jamhuri Day address, he will be doing so in circumstances radically different from his first celebration of the day as president in 2013.
In December 2013, just eight months after he was sworn in for his first term, Mr Kenyatta was a man cheering the 2010 constitution. Today, he is a great proponent of amending it.
In last year’s Jamhuri Day speech and this year’s State of the Nation address, he spent a great deal of time explaining why a constitutional moment had arisen that warranted the amendment of the supreme law of the land. He was more enthusiastic than radical when he spoke of the constitution in 2013.
“In 2010, we gave ourselves a constitution that affirms the sovereignty of the people of Kenya and puts our destiny in our hands. The charter instituted equality and devolution. We agreed on how we shall bake and share the national cake,” he said then.
Last year, his tone on the constitution had changed as he was pushing for an amendment through the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) that was halted by the courts earlier this year.
He said the 2010 document was a product of dread. “A constitution that elicits compliance by creating fear can only cause disturbance to the soul of the nation. And indeed, when we adopted the 2010 constitution, we were driven by fear. Our national spirit had been wounded and we were afraid of repeating the 2007 post-election violence. But, in running away from one crisis, we created another.
And, now is the moment to correct this and make a shift from a constitution of fear to a constitution of hope, a constitution that ensures our nation remains stable; and therefore, attractive to both local and foreign investors,” he said last year.
It remains to be seen what he will say of the constitution today. However, in his November 30 State of the Nation address, he appeared to suggest that his drive for a law change would go on, even as the matter now rests at the Supreme Court awaiting determination.
This year’s Jamhuri Day will be Mr Kenyatta’s last as president as he is serving his final term. He will now be left only with Madaraka Day on June 1, 2022, before he leaves office after the elections in August.
According to Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichungwa, an ally of Deputy President William Ruto, the situation in 2013 when President Kenyatta first led the country in marking Jamhuri Day is markedly different from the situation today.
“In 2013, people were optimistic that he would carry on with the good legacy that President Mwai Kibaki had left. We had just won an election for a popular national political party with majorities in both houses. In my view I think people are very disappointed because the economy is doing badly,” said Mr Ichungwa.
Another difference in circumstances is that today’s address will be made when Kenya is buckling under the weight of debt incurred while constructing the standard gauge railway and other infrastructure projects. On Jamhuri Day 2013, the borrowing and construction had just begun.
“To increase our stock of infrastructure, I recently launched the construction of the standard gauge railway and the new Jomo Kenyatta International Airport Greenfields Terminal. These projects will greatly enhance our competitiveness as Kenya and, indeed, for the Eastern Africa region as a whole,” he told an excited crowd at the Moi International Sports Centre, Kasarani. Not long after this address, the JKIA Greenfields Terminal would experience headwinds and eventually be terminated.
Today, the country is in public debt distress. “Gross public debt increased from 44.4 per cent of GDP (gross domestic product) at the end of 2010 to an estimated 79 per cent of GDP by the end of 2021,” said the Institute of Economic Affairs in a November 25 article.
Ordinarily, Mr Kenyatta downplays the threat of debt distress and favours speaking about the achievements of his government. Today might be no different.
While the above differences between then and now do not receive the same attention and publicity, the relationship between the president and his deputy William Ruto is the most obvious change from nine years ago.
At the Jamhuri Day 2013, the ‘dynamic duo’ was still like a newly-wed couple, each trying to impress and be there for the other and the bromance between the two men was there for all to see. Eight months earlier in 2013, they had made a public appearance at State House in matching shirts and ties as they announced their inaugural Cabinet.
One cannot say that today. Even though Mr Ruto will be performing his traditional role of welcoming the president to address the Jamhuri Day celebrations, today, their relationship is beyond repair as they have traded not-so-subtle blows in public. The souring relationship between the two men has also seen the two limit their interactions to only during public holidays and the State of the Nation address.
“In 2013, they were still enjoying the bromance. Now it is not there. There was no handshake. Now there is the handshake. Ruto is the deputy president but who is in the opposition and Raila is the opposition leader who is in government. So it can’t be as 2013. That time we had just come from an election. Now we are headed into a transitional election,” says Martin Andati, a political commentator.
Mr Ruto has formed his party, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) after his allies were kicked out of positions in the ruling Jubilee Party. In place of Mr Ruto, President Kenyatta mended fences with his 2013 and 2017 rival for the presidency, ODM leader Raila Odinga with whom they were pushing for amendments to the constitution. With about eight months to the polls, President Kenyatta also seems to be favouring Mr Odinga to succeed him at the expense of his deputy.
The soured relationship between the two has been compounded by the President’s renewed war on corruption, which according to Mr Ruto and his allies, is politically driven and aimed at political and corporate leaders perceived to be his allies.
“All the political dynamics have completely changed. Now we are entering into a different political dispensation. He may try to be reconciliatory in his speech today but the divorce has already happened. Instead, I think he will dwell on his achievements,” says Mr Andati.
For Mr Ichungwa, a critic of the president, Mr Kenyatta has lost the vision he had for a national political party and is instead actively engaged in encouraging the proliferation of regional and ethnic parties.
He expects only two things from the President today when he leads the country in the celebrations. One that he will leave the country united. “Two, that he will let Kenyans have a free choice as to who they elect as their next president and that he will not be like his protégé Moi trying to direct people to choose his project as he seems to be doing,” said Mr Ichungwa.
Instructively, both the president and Mr Ruto were suspects at the International Criminal Court during the 2013 Jamhuri Day.
The trial of Mr Ruto had started in September of 2013. At the time the country was celebrating the 50th Jamhuri Day, the post-election violence charges at The Hague were a big issue for the two and the country. It would be until a year later, in December 2014, that the court dropped the charges against Mr Kenyatta while Mr Ruto had to wait till 2016 when the court finally dismissed the case against him.
In the 2013 address, Mr Kenyatta did not specifically mention the ICC cases but was reaching out to Africa to stand with Kenya. “Africa has a voice. With 50 years after independence, Africa demands that its voice must be heard,” he said.
While President Kenyatta has pushed on with the pan-African agenda, the ICC is no longer an issue.
Now, the COVID-19 pandemic and the worsening economic conditions stand as the biggest challenges facing Kenya today, and which the President cannot afford to leave out of his speech.
