The value of trade between Kenya and its peers in Africa has dropped for the first time in four years amidst a damning finding that Kenya has become more difficult to visit for travelers outside the East African Community bloc.
Analysis of official data shows the value of exports and imports between Kenya and countries on the continent amounted to an estimated Sh512.00 billion in nine months ended September compared with Sh513.65 billion in the prior year.
The marginal 0.32 percent drop in the review period was the first since 2020 when the value of Kenya’s intra-African trade declined 9.66 percent year-on-year to Sh307.90 billion on travel restrictions to curb the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic at the time.
The data collated by the Central Bank of Kenya and sourced from records kept by the Kenya Revenue Authority, suggests Kenya’s exports to Africa has slowed this year, while imports have fallen.
This came in in a year Kenya slid 17 places in ease of travel to rank at number 46 out of 54 countries in Africa, according to the Africa Visa Openness Report 2024.
The annual report, run by African Union and African Development Bank (AfDB), measures how easy it is for Africans to enter one of the countries on the continent.
The fall in value in value of trade and poor ranking in ease of intra-African travel shines a spotlight on Kenya’s position as a champion of integration on the continent under the African Union-backed African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) trading bloc.
The report blamed the fall in ranking on enforcement of the Electronic Travel Authorisation (eTA) which requires foreigners outside the EAC bloc [excluding Somalia] to apply electronically 72 hours before arrival to be granted permission to enter Kenya at a cost of $30 (about Sh3,900).
Kenya was amongst the first countries which participated in the pilot phase of the Guided Trade Initiative (GTI) from October 2022 which aimed at stress-testing operational, institutional, legal, and trade policy environment ahead of the full rollout of AfCFTA.
“From the perspective of movement of people, the GTI can be leveraged as a case for the acceleration of movement of persons for the purposes of intra-African trade – including but not limited to trade in services. This is essential because people must follow both the goods and services,” the AfDB analysts wrote in the Visa Openness Report in late November.
“The GTI is a commendable initiative and important catalyst to help drive progress in the AfCFTA, yet it must ultimately be seen as a bridging facility to enable preferential trade between countries that have completed critical aspects of the trade negotiations, and in turn, to finalise national legal processes to implement these outcomes.”
The CBK data shows the value of goods Kenya sold to African countries grew a measly 1.25 percent to Sh322.66 billion, marking the first single-digit rise in the January-September period since 8.85 percent to Sh179.10 billion in 2020 when there were travel curbs.
Imports, on the other hand, dropped for the second year running, falling a modest 2.90 percent to Sh189.34 billion.
Kenya largely sells cement clinkers, lubricants, tea, food preparations, and wheat flour, and re-exports of kerosene-type jet fuel to its key trading partners on the continent, while it buys goods such as iron and steel, chemical fertiliser, and grains.
A marginal fall in imports in the review period for the second year in a row at a time when exports grew, albeit at a modest rate, widened Kenya’s surplus in merchandise trade to Sh133.32 billion from Sh123.68 billion in a corresponding period a year earlier.
The value of trade between Kenya and its largest trade partner, Uganda, in the nine months, grew a measly 1.00 percent to Sh125.16 billion. This was the first single-digit growth in total trade between the two countries on the back of on-and-off rows which has hit cross-border trade largely in eggs, sugar, milk powder, grains, and confectionery.
The data shows that imports from the landlocked country dropped 9.19 percent to Sh25.34 billion, while exports grew 3.96 percent to Sh99.82 billion.
“We have agreed that trade between the two countries is unimpeded either by tariff or non-tariff barriers or arbitrary levies,” Kenya’s President William Ruto said on May 16 during a State visit by his counterpart Yoweri Museveni. “We have agreed that the common principle will be the full implementation of the EAC customs and other infrastructure that support trade between East African countries. Therefore, all the issues around rice, juice, furniture, eggs, chicken, and sugar are now resolved.”
The value of goods traded between Kenya and Tanzania, however, rose 16.45 percent to Sh93.87 billion. This was after traders in Kenya sold goods worth Sh49.04 billion in the review period while spending Sh44.84 billion.
The fairly-balanced trade between the two countries, which have in recent years been trying to flatten long-standing tariff and non-tariff barriers, was largely on a significant 39.96 percent growth in value of imports from Tanzania, while exports grew a slit 0.95 percent. The data shows the total value of flow of goods between Kenya and smaller trading partners dropped a marginal 1.72 percent to Sh90.53 billion.
The fall in the value of trade between Kenya and Africa came on the back of Dr Ruto coming out as a champion for the removal of trade barriers on the continent to ease the movement of goods, services, and labour through the integration of regional trading blocs.
The integration is aimed at creating the world’s largest single market of about 1.4 billion people with an estimated economic output of more than $3 trillion (about Sh474 billion under prevailing conversion rates) under the ambitious African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).
Dr Ruto has particularly been aggressively rallying his counterparts on the continent to adopt a payment system that facilitates settlement of intra-African trade deals in national currencies as a first step towards reducing reliance on the US dollar in intra-Africa trade.
“Technology is going to play a big role, making sure that our businesspeople are not unnecessarily encumbered by looking at that currency and this currency to be able to trade. We will try and see whether we can take that out of the equation so that they can concentrate on enhancing trade between our countries,” the President said in the past.
