The year 2024 is the most momentous in the history of global elections. At least 19 African countries are prepared for major electoral events this year. The projected developments will provide both possibilities and problems for Africa.
Whatever happens in Africa and worldwide, the economy will be affected. The results of these elections may alter policy directions that affect the continent.
While Africa prepares for political milestones through elections, global elections may also impact the continent. For example, the respective June and November European Union (EU) and the US elections may change policies toward the continent. The EU and the US wield significant power in Africa based on historical interests and their involvement in the continent's development initiatives.
For instance, the EU has recently proposed extensive initiatives like the Global Gateway proposals aimed at collaboration with Africa. Any shifts in EU policy resulting from its upcoming elections could profoundly affect Africa's trajectory. Major infrastructural projects like the ongoing Lubito corridor in southern Africa may be affected.
Many Analysts anticipate significant gains for the European People’s Party (EPP), followed by the Socialists and Democrats. The Greens and liberalist Renew Europe are likely to lose a significant number of seats, giving rise to more seats for the right-wing populist Identity and Democracy group (ID) and the centre-right, the European Conservatives and Reformist Group (ECR) due to heightened concerns over immigration. An alliance between ID and ECR could alter the EU's political landscape and policy direction.
The European Commission has already set the agenda for the upcoming parliamentary term, prioritising post-pandemic economic recovery, job creation, long-term growth, and strengthening the EU’s single market.
The EU President Ursula von der Leyen has underscored industrial policy, competitiveness, and addressing digital risks as critical objectives for the commission’s final year in office, particularly in ongoing technological advancements such as artificial intelligence.
But despite all these, concerns persist within the EU regarding the potential implications of Donald Trump’s second term in the US presidency. Should Trump be elected as the US President, there are apprehensions about the future of the EU-US partnership, especially considering Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy approach and his alignment with leaders like Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Should such circumstances arise, the EU has embarked on a path towards strategic autonomy to mitigate reliance on the US.
Also, Trump has had more significant implications for Africa. Economic experts predict that Africa should start preparing for his second presidency because he has handily won two important primary elections and is leading by a wide margin in other states. Those who dismiss this as a primary election are spreading false hope. A closer look reveals an image we do not desire but must accept because we must respect people’s wills.
A televised casual survey in North Carolina found that Americans will vote for Trump even if he is convicted. Why? Because his attitude to immigration speaks to millions of people who fear being overwhelmed by immigrants. It is the same across Europe, particularly in Italy and the Netherlands.
Despite Trump’s disregard for Africa, his presidency could offer opportunities for the continent, given his inclination towards deal-making. For instance, his administration signed a decree regarding strategic minerals, recognising Africa’s significance in their supply chain. Africa should capitalise on this by shifting towards more commercial approaches in its partnerships with developed nations, moving away from traditional aid-dependent models towards mutually beneficial investment strategies.
African nations must prioritise economic self-sufficiency by leveraging their resources through commercial agreements and investments. Also, establishing processing plants for critical minerals and seeking shareholding in value chains can enable Africa to generate profits for infrastructure development and social services, fostering economic growth and reducing dependence on aid.
Through strategic economic initiatives and inclusive policies, Africa has the potential to secure its prosperity and contribute significantly to global stability and development. Furthermore, Africa can play a pivotal role in addressing global challenges, regardless of the political landscape in Western nations.
This, therefore, calls for the region to focus on value-driven collaborations and creating employment opportunities for its youth. Africa can also contribute to global stability and prosperity while advancing its interests.
With global elections including the EU region and the US, Africa stands to carve out its future amidst shifting political landscapes. But what is required is how the area will embrace partnerships and resource optimisation. With this pace, Africa can assert itself as a key player in global affairs, irrespective of the outcomes of far-right movements in the Western world.
As we navigate future uncertainties, Africa's proactive approach towards collaboration and value creation promises a brighter tomorrow for the continent and the world.
The writer is Kenya’s Ambassador to Belgium, Mission to the European Union, Organization of African Caribbean and Pacific States and World Customs Organization. The article is written at a personal level.
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