Africa risks missing out on biofuel industry boom on policies dearth

Occasionally, a business opportunity arises that the world is so unprepared for that it opens the door to everyone and anyone — if they can only move on it.

In 2023, that occasional cloud burst of earning potential has sprung from sustainable aviation fuel.

As climate change hurtles us all towards extinction by 2050, it has become more than a little urgent to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions that are forming a huge molecular blanket in our atmosphere, holding in reflected heat and hurting us in thousands of ways.

Yet aircraft contribute around 2.5 percent of all carbon emissions, and shipping another three percent, through their diesel use. Moving them to biofuel would cut that by 80 percent.

Read: Total eyes biofuels in diversification plans 

The technology is there, but there are hold-ups. First off, governance in China has changed. Twenty and 30 years ago, China was the world’s strategic supremo, spotting opportunities ahead and positioning itself in market dominance, be it for the key raw materials for mobile phones, laptops or cars.

But China doesn’t care so much about business strategy any more – indeed, its latest push is to make the countries that buy over 50 percent of its exports into enemies, in support of bit-part player Russia (which buys two percent of China’s goods).

So, for the first time in decades, we have a raw material need that China did not grab. Thus, we have moved straight to shortages.

As it is, biofuel can be made from a wide range of inputs, from chicken grease to agricultural waste, but when large plants are in operation, sourcing ‘bits and pieces’ locally is not a viable game.

So, attention has turned to seeds, many from East Africa.

The top target is carinata, also known as Ethiopian mustard or Ethiopian kale, but only Ethiopia has spotted the opportunity and regulated for carinata to be grown for oil production.

However, other seeds also work, such as cotton and castor. This has set up a scramble across the region for seeds, with prices soaring, but all in hapless chaos.

Moreover, with food security at rock bottom, and ground-cover seeds competing for agricultural space, any long-term supply needs models for farmers to grow biofuel seeds plus food.

Read: Biodiesel offers Kenya viable clean transport route

Yet, with no policy attention or coordination and few investors moving to set up in East Africa, the global industry’s attention is, instead, devising ways to grow these seeds in the West, where the refineries are that want to process them and despite the challenges of the less-than-ideal growing conditions.

And that’s how Africa misses the next boom industry, behind all the others we missed. Because we didn’t crack the seed production formula or build the oil processing plants.