What next for Kenya after COP29 forum and climate finance pledge?
COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev speaks during a closing plenary meeting at the COP29 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan on November 24, 2024.
The COP29 climate forum in Baku “promised” $300 billion in climate finance by industrialised countries to fund developing countries.
It is also important to note the absence of any specific agenda at the forum to address reduction of emissions from fossil fuels.
The implication from both COP28 and COP29 is that fossil fuels will play their full role in global energy transition, a big win for fossil fuels lobbies.
The $300 billion climate finance will be in form of climate-targeted investments, loans, and grants. There will also be increased opportunities in carbon offsets and trading, which Kenya is already engaged in.
Of importance is how Kenya walks the energy transition journey, aware that about 70 percent of energy Kenya uses in all economic sectors is from imported fossil fuels —a crippling economic input cost and a balance of payment concern.
The 30 percent balance is from mostly renewable electricity. From opportunities offered by climate finance and energy transition, Kenya should target delivering increased jobs, incomes, food security, strong balance of payments, and enhanced climate resilience.
These are the factors that concern Kenyans most, and which will ensure national economic and political stability. Direct foreign investments are already happening in renewable power generation and electric vehicles. Specifically, off-grid solar generation and applications should be a high priority.
We should, however, avoid rushing into nuclear energy, and green hydrogen until their technical and economic viability is proven.
Electrification of existing and proposed standard gauge railway (SGR) extension is imperative to reduce imported oil while reducing emissions.
The 120,000 barrels per day Turkana oil resources should fit in the global energy transition, which has a span beyond 2050. The Energy ministry should explain to Kenyans why Turkana oil commercialisation is no longer prioritised. Alternative investors should be sought as Tullow Oil lacks capacity to develop the oil.
Turkana oil revenues can augment Kenya’s capacity to pay our debts, and if refined locally strengthen balance of payment as oil imports will reduce.
The same argument applies to Kitui coal resources. Governments around the world are prioritising development of their fossil fuel resources.
Carbon trading presents economic opportunities, especially if targeted on incremental carbon sinks from commercial and agroforestry.
Commercial forestry in particular will add economic value to timber and paper industries, which will simultaneously reduce imports.
I have in mind bamboo plantations in arid and semi-arid land (Asal) areas. Incremental acreage in fruit growing has multiple benefits, including carbon sinks for carbon offset trading. Biofuel crops planted in marginal areas can qualify for carbon credits as these are exported for use in sustainable aviation fuel (Saf).
