CBK, KNBS must read from same script on economy

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) and the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) have issued conflicting economic performance data for the second quarter for this year as well as growth forecasts for 2020.

For instance, the CBK estimates the dominant agriculture sector grew 5.8 percent in the first quarter, which is higher than the 4.9 percent reported by the KNBS. Further, the banking regulator reported a 6.2 percent agriculture sector growth in the second quarter of this year as opposed to 6.4 percent captured by the statistics office.

But that’s not all. The CBK also estimates the accommodation and food services sector — which was the hardest hit by Covid-19 shutdowns and restrictions — contracted a narrower 64.9 per cent in the second quarter as opposed to 83.3 per cent the KNBS published.

Clearly this is a bit confusing, especially coming from two key agencies whose data is heavily relied on for critical economic planning decisions and scholarly works.

As the principal agency of the government tasked with collecting, analysing and disseminating statistical data in Kenya, individuals, think-tanks and scholars worldwide look up to the KNBS for reliable information on national socio-economic matters.

The CBK is equally important because it drives the formulation of the country’s monetary policy and advises the government on fiscal matters.

It is important that the two agencies read from the same script to avoid confusing the public.

Economic and development data shapes a nation’s decisions and agenda and every effort should be made to ensure that all is credible and accurate to win public confidence.

It is therefore the responsibility of all key State agencies to ensure accurate data is collected, analysed and disseminated to the public.

Perhaps both the CBK and the KNBS should have a more coordinated research function to avoid or limit such confusion in future.

The essence of any statistical undertaking is that data is cross-checked against as many information sets as possible to attain reasonable and respectable levels of accuracy.