It’s back to business after BBI Court of Appeal judgment

Today, Friday, August 27, 2021, marks the 11th anniversary of the promulgation of Kenya’s highly progressive 2010 Constitution.

In the traditional sense of marriage, this is referred to by some as the ‘Steel’ anniversary in the same way that 25th is ‘Silver’, 50th is ‘Gold’, 75th (or 60th) is ‘Diamond’ and, as contemplated by a few, the idea of a 100th ‘Bone’ anniversary.

Apparently, steel symbolises the strong bond between partners, a launching pad into the “second stage” of marriage.

With a bit of cheeky imagination, one sees two perspectives to this imagery.

First, that the Court of Appeal judgment that largely upheld the High Court’s earlier one, and effectively put paid to the constitutional part of the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) came a week early (or more mischievously, that the three-year handshake ended a week before it should have started).

Or second, that this steel anniversary is an affirmation, nay reaffirmation, of the Constitution as the social contract, the real handshake, between the people, as principals, and our leadership as transitory agents of the state that should bond, then build us into the “unity in diversity” nation we aspire to be.

OK, while I will leave the flowery and flowing language to our judges, media reports of celebratory public events around this anniversary suggest it might be a good thing to hear from leaders today. It’s as good a day as any to project timeless hope, not transient despair, in our pursuit of the Kenyan dream.

Back in everyday Kenya, there will be mixed feelings about the end of BBI ‘reggae’. On one hand, it served a relatively noise-free peace-keeping, but also far less publicly accountable, purpose for three years (read, debt). On the other, through its indicted process, it divided more than united us.

Ironically, though the judges didn’t say it, we may now lose the interesting raft of non-constitutional BBI policy, legislative and administrative proposals which may have progressively improved implementation of the same Constitution that the same judges thought constitutional BBI would have dismembered.

So we woke up last Monday with Covid-19 still hanging around. A brilliant tweet this week captured today’s moment thus, “The world is finally divided into two clear groups…the vaccinated waiting for the non-vaccinated to die…[and]…the non-vaccinated waiting for the vaccinated to die.”

In completely unscientific terms, the solution to the holy formula: herd immunity = vaccine immunity + natural immunity currently reads unclear = uncertain + unknown (or is it uncertain = unclear + unknown?).

As with the rest of the world, this pandemic is also causing serious illness to data management. The most important numbers these days are cases, deaths and vaccinations, particularly since there’s probably all manner of testing and retesting (and therefore double counting) during this vaccination phase.

A quick Worldometers data check on Kenya, using a real-time population estimate of 55 million at the time of writing offers this picture. In pre-vaccine language, we’ve tested 4.2 percent of the population, of whom 10 per cent (0.42 percent of the population) have tested positive.

Nine of 10 positive cases recover, with fatalities at two out of 100, which leaves roughly 14,000 (5.7 percent of cases or two out of every 10,000 Kenyans still undergoing treatment. This is cumulative and not trend data to demonstrate the Delta variant’s impact. You may also ponder the numbers against our pandemic panic.

In the vaccination era, official data shows we’re at 4.4 percent for a single dose, with three per cent fully jabbed. Our December target is 18-20 percent and half of Kenya by June next year. For the record, by August 25, we had received 3.6 million vaccine doses, equal to a single jab for 6.5 percent of Kenya.

Hence the real ask — fix the pandemic and the economy. Simply, how to control new virus spread, vaccinate like mad and reboot, not just recover, the economy?

Call this post-BBI Priority One — a once in a generation “walk stairs and chew gum” leadership moment.

Let’s add another thought. Both BBI principals, President Uhuru Kenyatta and Opposition Leader Raila Odinga, publicly appear to have moved on. The latter to “prepare” (definition needed?) for 2022. The former to pursue a strong finish to a nine-year Presidency ending a few months into his tenth year.

Between bottom-up economics and the rest, we are hearing from prospective leadership candidates. This is Kenya’s third “lame-duck presidency” hibernation transition in the multi-party era, a malaise BBI partly sought to resolve.

Well, if the August 24 State House memo, I’m just reading is correct, lookout for a “big bang” close this time, based on “synergised and coordinated government communication”.

To wit, “all public communication will be required to refer to Vision 2030 and the Big Four agenda, and the implementation progress of all related projects and programmes documented and effectively publicised”.

The Vision 2030 Secretariat and Presidential Delivery Unit will jointly audit every public institution quarterly for compliance. Communication includes all government advertising.

Call this post-BBI Priority Two — a challenging “living in interesting legacy and transitional times” episode.

Who said Kenya isn’t “politically policy-exciting? Get your popcorn ready!