Why COP26 is unlikely to achieve much new ground

Petroleum consultant

In the past one week of speeches by global leaders, it was apparent that COP26 was not heading for new brave climate policies and actions.

There was much caution and avoidance in pushing for reduced production and use of fossil fuels, understandably because fossil fuel demands are still high and immediate reduction of supplies would mean increased prices when global economies are still recovering.

The stark reality is that the world has not developed enough renewable energy supplies and demands to significantly replace fossil fuels.

Secondly, unlike in the past forums, decisive global leadership was definitely lacking with USA politically leveraged at home, and China missing in the forum. Russia was similarly absent but definitely intent on protecting its fossil fuels economic lifeline.

Australia and India, key coal economies, will not commit immediate coal reduction. Europe which is the darling of global climate policies and actions is not cohesive enough to push a global agenda, especially when it is facing a serious energy supply crisis .

By the time COP26 winds up it will likely adopt a softer and politically innocent climate action plans These include carbon capture technologies, methane emissions reduction, stepped up forestation, increased investments in accelerated renewable technologies, and funding climate-impacted people of developing world.

Another major observation is that this time around, many more global citizens are aware of global warming, its causes and what generally needs to be done to reduce impacts. The days of climate science deniers are definitely gone. And much credit definitely goes to global media which has devoted tremendous time and space to step up climate awareness and participation.

Another evident takeaway from the ongoing COP26 is that climate deterioration is running much ahead of combined global counter efforts. A situation that makes global warming a generational issue as epitomised by the young “climate angel” Greta Thunberg.

The younger people correctly see the heaviest climate impacts coming when it is their time. The older generations, which will retire earlier, remain opportunistic as they stall in climate indecisiveness.

To the young generations the primary climate solution is immediate reduction in production and use of fossil fuels. They see the secondary solutions advanced by governments and businesses as PR “greenwashing”.

However, what is correct is that both primary and secondary climate solutions are required to concurrently hasten climate solutions.

Reduction of methane emissions is one of the secondary solutions being popularised at the climate forum. Methane, like carbon dioxide, is a potent greenhouse gas.

Elimination of methane emissions and flaring especially in oil industry supply chains is an environmental housekeeping issue to be prioritised.

Methane emissions from bovines (cows ) is another area of interest, but unlikely to find immediate scaling-up support from vested interests.

Carbon capture and storage technologies will be pushed by fossil fuels stakeholders (countries and companies). It allows continued use of fossil fuels, while capturing carbon emission for either long term storage or for application into other lower carbon emitting uses.

They correctly argue that the climate problem is not in producing and using fossil fuels, but in letting resultant carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Carbon capture technologies are already widespread and justified as stop-gap technologies to allow time for transition to renewable energy.

The other secondary effort is forestation to increase natural carbon absorption capacity. This is is seen as an easier delegated option supported and funded by fossil fuel producers. However, many will see this as a hypocritical PR effort to buy credibility for continued fossil fuel business.

All said and done, the unsung climate champions are renewable energy technology developers and investors who have continued to view climate problems as economic opportunities to be developed and commercialised into scaled up energy solutions.

It is for governments to help renewable energy technologies to achieve mass production for sustainability, competitiveness, and affordability.

COP26 is another milestone that allows us take stock of where global climate solutions are and what next steps to address. The climate journey ahead looks more difficult than previously imagined, calling for harder economic and political decisions by global leadership.