Analysts raise Kenya's growth projection for 2020


Acting Treasury Secretary Ukur Yatani. FILE PHOTO | NMG



  • A consensus growth outlook for December shows economy is likely to expand 5.8 percent next year.

Economists have upgraded Kenya’s economic growth projection for 2020 by 10 basis points, citing increased expenditure on infrastructure and a healthy private sector demand following the removal of interest caps on bank loans.

A consensus growth outlook for December, based on an analysis of growth forecast from some 14 global banks, consultancies and think-tanks, show Kenya’s economy is likely to expand 5.8 percent next year.

This is a slight increase from a 5.7 percent consensus growth outlook last month, according to Barcelona-based economic forecast and analysis firm which tracks and compiles global data monthly.

“Government spending is seen accelerating as officials continue to move forward with the “Big Four Agenda” infrastructure projects, while upbeat private consumption should further support the expansion,” Nicolas Aguilar, an economist at FocusEconomics, wrote in December outlook report Tuesday evening.

Acting Treasury Secretary Ukur Yatani on Tuesday proposed to raise expenditure on development projects for this financial year ending June, 2020 by Sh85.5 billion.

Projects under President Uhuru Kenyatta’s “Big Four” plan — which seek to boost manufacturing, food and nutrition security, affordable housing and universal health coverage — and enablers such as roads and power transmission lines are the biggest beneficiaries.

Some of the projects which will get additional cash boost in Mr Yatani’s supplementary budget before the National Assembly include those under universal health coverage (Sh21.9 billion), power transmission and distribution (Sh7.87 billion) and industrial development parks (Sh5.9 billion), among others.