Lots of talk and little investment in food security

While former President Daniel arap Moi had an underperforming coffee segment to worry about ahead of the first multi-party elections, the regimes after him have had to confront the raging politics of maize.

Half-hearted policy interventions and official deception have combined over the years to catapult maize into Kenya’s most politicised crop, dethroning sugar, coffee, tea and pyrethrum.

From Narc, through to the Grand Coalition and Jubilee Coalition, political regimes have failed to match food security talk with action.

This is how the cycle starts. A candidate promises to prioritise fixing the country’s food security; then a cleverly worded manifesto is designed to proclaim an end to rain-fed agriculture.

Through the campaign period, the message is reinforced by constantly reminding voters of the billions of shillings lost in past flour subsidies, relief food and duty-free imports. Once in office, however, agriculture takes the back burner, until the next cycle of drought begins.

If Kenya has ever come closer to food riots, high flour prices have been the reason.

Shortly after his controversial re-election, for instance, a crowd demanding affordable flour forced Mr Mwai Kibaki’s convoy to stop at Githurai. The day was February 17, 2008.

Apparently unsure of the gravity of the matter at hand, Mr Kibaki, who at the time was heading to his Nyeri home, reportedly told the crowd:

“You (private citizens) are responsible for high flour prices. Those who are hoarding maize are here among you.”

The full message would, however, sink weeks later after another group of protesters confronted his coalition partner, Raila Odinga, at Nairobi’s Eastleigh with similar chants of unga (flour). Just like today, the country was facing an acute shortage of maize and flour prices had crossed the red line of Sh100 per packet.

The capital city was restive and pundits were hinting at possible food riots in slum areas.

Maize is Kenya’s staple food with a monthly consumption rate of three million bags, according to the Agriculture ministry.

Experts have faulted this figure saying the ministry first published it more than 10 years ago when the population was hardly 30 million.

The country’s population hit 45.4 million by end of 2016, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

Kenyans have been promised mechanised and irrigated agriculture backed by affordable fertiliser and improved seeds since 2002. They have also heard of how an expanded strategic food reserve could tame seasonal price swings.

When the maize shortage came calling in 2008, for instance, echoes of President Kibaki’s earlier sentiments were unmistakable in a speech that Mr Odinga issued on behalf of the coalition government.

Policy failures

Mr Odinga’s close-door meeting with the then Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Agriculture minister William Ruto and millers had dragged on for a whole day.

Millers, the media would later understand, were unwilling to accept a charge that business machinations — rather than policy failures — were responsible for flour price fluctuations.

The government has linked the current price rallies to drought while the 2008 one was attributed both to poor weather and post-election destructions.

The Agriculture ministry projected a national production of 37.1 million sacks and an estimated 1.7 million imported sacks up to December 2016.

But the script is all the same. Maize politics invariably starts with uncertainty over the quantity of national stocks.

Millers often set the ball rolling by insisting on grain shortage even as government officials assure Kenyans of adequate stock and accuse farmers of hoarding the produce.

Politicians then accuse each other of colluding with cartels to drive up maize prices.

Next, retail outlets start rationing flour, prompting the Treasury to remove import duty. Then millers start receiving direct rebates from the Treasury to enable them produce flour at pre-set prices.

Just like eight years ago, the government has set aside Sh6 billion for the subsidy scheme.

A miller is to be compensated for any amount in excess Sh2,350 per 90kg sack of maize bought. In 2008, the rebate was equal to anything spent above a recommended sack price of Sh1,950.

Last week, the government set a uniform price of Sh90 for a two-kg packet of the subsidised flour.

Eight years ago, the coalition government tried a two-tier pricing of Sh52 per packet for the low-end market and Sh65 for everyone else. The uniform pricing appears to be a modification after the previous one flopped because it was impractical to audit millers who rely on the same distribution channels to get products to the market.

READ: Flour crisis as maize harvest to fall by 4.3m

Critics have raised the same old fears saying retailers could still pass off the government’s maize as part of their old stock.

“We are deeply concerned that from procurement of maize to the distribution of flour, the process has been shrouded in mystery,” argues Mr Stephen Mutoro, the secretary-general of Consumers Federation of Kenya.

“By design or default, there has been no accountability at all. Corruption and missing value for money fears cannot be far-fetched.”

And long-term measures? Political intrigue rules. All the regimes after Mr Moi have promised increased investment in irrigation, mechanisation, production of cheap fertiliser and expansion of the strategic food reserve. The Jubilee government set out to build a one million-acre irrigation scheme at Galana-Kulalo in five years.

It has only managed 5,000 acres as its first term ends with the Deputy President Ruto saying they went slow after experts asked them to build dams first.

A quick review of national budgets indicates that the Treasury has allocated between Sh8 billion and Sh20.4 billion annually for new and existing irrigation projects in the last seven years.

However, it is unclear whether all the money was disbursed since no corresponding change has been recorded on the ground.

In a statement to the media last week, Mr Odinga stopped short of accusing the Treasury of rolling over unspent money to the next financial year and passing it off each time as a new allocation.

“After spending all these billions, how did we end up without food? Where did the money go? What have we been irrigating and what strategic food reserves have we been financing?” he posed.