Queries raised over validity of census after 10 years

His household is not the only one that missed the crucial count in the neighbourhood.

Earlier, he had watched from one of the estate’s kiosks as the two enumerators — a man and a woman — made unsuccessful attempts to access fortified houses.

“I don’t think the final data released recently captures the right population size because I know of so many other people who were not counted,” Mr Radier told Business Daily.

Statisticians say they are well aware of all these shortcomings in data collection, adding that it is always impractical to count everyone in a census. They, thus, agree on reasonable margins of error to draw generalisations that are finally presented as the final tally.

Accuracy

This however, government officials point out, does not mean that accuracy of the population census would be guaranteed if everyone was interviewed during the national count.

“Even in places where people are physically found and interviewed, we can only guarantee the reliability of the information collected to the extent that citizens give since this process rely heavily on their integrity,” says Planning PS Edward Sambili.

This is the reality that was aptly brought home in the recent census when the government swiftly moved to cancel figures from 8 districts saying rates of population increase recorded contradicted birth and death rates.

The cancellation of the results has ignited debate over the effectiveness the age-old physical counting that the state has retained from colonial times as sections of politicians and religious leaders emerge to dispute the census figures.

Muslim and Hindu leaders have rejected the 4.3 million and 53,333 members assigned to their faiths respectively saying the government figures has grossly understated their membership.

“We don’t understand why government spent billions of shillings to collect wrong figures instead of just asking faith groups to provide free information about their membership,” said Mr Ahmed Kumar, a rights activist.

Government officials speaking off the record said the national population census is a sensitive figure that cannot be left in the hands of any of the partisan groups.

Some economists, however, believe the government can save billions of the taxpayers money if it stops duplicating data that is already held by its other departments.

“Once there is initial national population census data, it can be updated on annual basis with the help of the elaborate government machinery instead of waiting to hire thousands of enumerators every 10 years,” argues Dr Samuel Nyandemo, an economist at the Nairobi University’s School of Business.

He says chiefs and village elders can be used to report on new births and deaths in their villages while other information such as livestock, access to water and sanitation can easily be provided by line ministries.

But the government still went ahead to spend Sh8.4 billion to collect data on all this information, some of which merely confirmed its own existing records.

At least 59.5 per cent of the national count budget (Sh5 billion) was spent on paying wages to personnel hired to ensure the 12 million questionnaires reached practically everyone.

At the time of conducting population census, the Government faced serious cash flow challenges fuelled by competing national interests such as famine, drought and the resettlement of the internally displaced persons.

It was also at this time that government was funding the constitutional review process, yet treasury still managed juggle these things and came up with adequate fund for census

“Resources had to be diverted from other segments of the economy make this process possible,” public service head, Francis Muthaura said at the launch of the 2009 Census results.

Government departments and other users of census data have rushed to defend the count saying primary data usually uncovers much more information that is not reflected in the official data.

For instance, the Information ministry has since ordered mobile telephone firms to register subscribers but officials said the data collected will not replace the overriding need for primary data.

“The data collected through SIM registration is enough to provide information on access to mobile phones but says nothing about household or distribution,” Communication Commission of Kenya director Charles Njoroge told Business Daily.

The government is already digitising its information with aim of rolling out e-governance to improve service delivery.

ICT experts have argued that while almost 95 per cent of information generated by the government departments usually fall under the free public information, bureaucracy associated with obtaining manual records and misinterpretation of official secret Act have been used to deny the public easy access.

Joseph Kieyah of the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (Kippra) said the detailed primary data collected by KNBS on ICT access is likely to change the way government and private sector communicate to the public.

ICT penetration

“The level of ICT penetration will not only dictate how the government rolls out its services in future but also how the private sector communicates with its market,” Prof Kieyah said.

The physical count is also backed by currency traders who said information on diaspora remittances that the Central Bank of Kenya reports on a monthly basis is not adequate for decision making purposes.

Dealers say there are many Kenyans who prefer to use informal channels to transmit cash because they live abroad illegally, making it hard to use the formal banking system.

“The primary data obtained during the physical count is bound to be slightly higher than the secondary data obtained from CBK which excludes millions of shillings received through informal sources,” said Mr Joshua Anene, a currency dealer at the Commercial Bank of Africa.

Under the 2009 census, KNBS also sought information on sectors where the diaspora remittances are spent in a move aimed at debunking the long held myth that a sizeable chunk of these inflows end up in real estate — a piece of information that cannot be deduced from the CBK records.

Players in the education sector also hailed the elaborate physical counting of children saying the ministry of education only has information about school-going children, leaving out millions who do not have access to either private or public educational facilities.