Kenyan firms plan to increase the number of full-time employees in the final quarter of the year to support heightened activity anticipated during the festive period, a new Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) survey shows.
The survey findings show more respondents expect improved business activity in the fourth quarter, with higher demand orders, sales, production volumes, and employment levels projected as consumer spending and sectoral activity rise heading into the holiday season.
It sampled more than 1,000 chief executive officers in the private sector.
The expected improvement is linked to seasonal factors and a sustained easing of monetary policy, which has lowered borrowing costs and lifted optimism across key sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing, services and tourism.
Firms anticipate stronger orders and increased turnover during the year’s closing quarter, with firms’ projected expansion of their workforce marking the most optimistic outlook since the beginning of the year.
“Demand orders, growth in sales, number of employees and production volume are higher relative to the July survey, due to the expected increase in activity during the festive season,” wrote CBK.
“The number of full-time employees is expected to increase as firms hire additional staff to support heightened activity during the festive period.”
The survey shows that most firms are currently operating below their installed capacity, giving them room to meet increased demand without major new investment.
The services sector, including tourism and hospitality, anticipates an upturn in bookings and travel as holiday and conference activity intensifies. The CBK observed that firms in these sectors are preparing to increase shifts and extend operating hours to capitalise on the seasonal boom.
The economy has already shown a flicker of improved job creation in the final quarter of this year, going by the number of new opportunities created in September.
The latest Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing Managers’ Index showed that the private sector in September added new jobs at the fastest rate since the onset of youth-led anti-government protests more than two years ago.
Deadly pushback
This indicated economic recovery buoyed by a rebound in demand for goods and services.
The PMI for September showed that firms grew employment opportunities at the quickest pace since May 2023, just before the onset of the Gen-Z-led deadly pushback initially against new taxes and later bad governance.
“Business conditions expanded in September, implying the start of a recovery after the disruptions that followed protests in the second quarter of 2025,” Stanbic economist Christopher Legilisho said in the PMI report for September.
“New orders and output strengthened as consumer demand improved, despite some firms reporting caution from clients due to still challenging economic conditions. Employment meanwhile increased due to gains from new orders and output.”
Overall, the monthly PMI—a gauge for key economic indicators in the private sector such as output, new orders, and employment—rose to 51.9 in September from 49.4 in August. The reading was above the 50.0 no-change mark, signalling improvement in business conditions for the first time since April.
Firms cited stronger consumer demand, increased marketing campaigns, and product diversification as the key drivers of sales, which rose at the fastest pace in five months. A third of the surveyed firms reported an increase in output levels, compared to 23 percent that reported a drop in September.
