Rising global fertiliser prices signal pressure on Kenya’s food costs

“Fertiliser prices have continued to climb, by 19 percent in the first nine months of 2025 (year-on-year), reflecting strong demand, the effects of trade restrictions, and production shortfalls,” notes the Bank.

“Fertiliser prices are projected to rise by 21 percent in 2025.”

The outlook attributes the sustained high costs to export restrictions in China, continued sanctions on Belarus and Russia, and logistical constraints that have kept supply tight through much of the year.

“China has restricted exports of nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers, while Belarus —a major potash supplier— remains under EU sanctions. Together with Russia, it is also subject to new EU tariffs on fertilisers,” says the World Bank.

In contrast, the report projects global energy prices to fall by 12 percent in 2025 and by another 10 percent in 2026, while food and metal prices are expected to ease modestly.

The divergence leaves fertiliser as an outlier, with market prices remaining far above their pre-pandemic averages.

Kenya relies heavily on imports for its fertiliser supply, sourcing most of its stocks from China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.

Read: Middle East conflicts threaten Ruto’s fertiliser subsidy plan

The global price stickiness means that local procurement and retail prices could stay elevated, even as the government continues to implement subsidies under the national fertiliser support programme.

Latest data from the Kenya Bureau of Statistics shows that last month, consumer prices of key food items rose by double-digit percentage points when compared against a similar period last year, underscoring the impact of higher production costs.

Prices of tomatoes, for instance, grew 37.3 percent during the referenced period, while those of sifted maize flour and loose maize grain rose 16.4 percent and 13.7 percent, respectively.

Other food items whose prices recorded significant growth year-on-year included fortified maize flour (16.5 percent), sukuma wiki (15.4 percent), spinach (11.9 percent), cabbage (20.3 percent) and onions (12 percent).

The government has, in recent years, expanded the national fertiliser subsidy programme, under which farmers access discounted inputs through the National Cereals and Produce Board.

While the scheme aims to stabilise food prices by lowering farmers’ production costs, the sustained increase in global prices may put a limit on how far the subsidies can go in offsetting import costs.

According to the World Bank, global fertiliser markets have struggled to normalise since the supply disruptions that began in 2022 following the conflict in Ukraine.

Production capacity in key exporting countries remains constrained, while shipping and energy costs— though easing—have not fallen enough to offset structural shortages.

The World Bank, however, expects the prices to decline slightly by about five percent in 2026, but warns that any rebound in natural gas prices or extension of export curbs could reverse the trend.

For Kenya, the sustained global prices come at a time when food inflation remains sensitive to agricultural input costs. Official data shows that agriculture accounts for nearly one-fifth of the gross domestic product, and fertiliser is one of its largest recurrent input expenses.

Since the introduction of the subsidy programme, retail fertiliser prices have eased from highs of above Sh6,500 per 50-kilogramme bag at the peak of 2022, to between Sh1,775 and Sh3,500 in selected counties.

Fertiliser imports also account for a significant portion of Kenya’s foreign exchange spending on non-fuel commodities. A prolonged period of elevated global prices is, thus, a recipe for pressure on the import bill, especially during the main planting seasons when volumes peak.

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